**US-Iran tensions center on airstrikes, naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz, and economic sanctions rather than ground invasion.** Since the February 2026 start of U.S. and Israeli operations, actions have remained limited to targeted strikes on military and coastal targets, missile exchanges, and a naval blockade, with a June memorandum of understanding expiring without a nuclear or shipping deal. The Trump administration has shifted emphasis to secondary sanctions and economic pressure campaigns, citing munitions constraints, casualties, and risks of wider escalation. Iranian responses have focused on asymmetric tactics and diplomacy with mediators, while U.S. officials have signaled openness to talks if conditions are met. These patterns of calibrated force and economic leverage, absent large-scale troop deployments, underpin trader consensus against a U.S. invasion before 2027.