Blue Origin’s severely damaged Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral remains the dominant factor behind the 89.5% market-implied odds against another New Glenn explosion by October 31. The May 28, 2026 static-fire failure destroyed a first-stage booster and heavily damaged the sole operational pad, prompting a shift to a hybrid horizontal/vertical assembly process rather than full reconstruction of the transporter-erector. With recovery work still underway in early September and no launches or static-fire tests scheduled before late 2026, the company lacks near-term flight opportunities that could produce another anomaly. Recent milestones, including the April NG-3 reused-booster flight, underscore ongoing engine and reusability progress on the BE-4 methane engines, but pad constraints and testing priorities at Stennis Space Center limit exposure through October. Any unexpected acceleration in pad certification could serve as the main near-term catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日11% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/31
11% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Blue Origin’s severely damaged Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral remains the dominant factor behind the 89.5% market-implied odds against another New Glenn explosion by October 31. The May 28, 2026 static-fire failure destroyed a first-stage booster and heavily damaged the sole operational pad, prompting a shift to a hybrid horizontal/vertical assembly process rather than full reconstruction of the transporter-erector. With recovery work still underway in early September and no launches or static-fire tests scheduled before late 2026, the company lacks near-term flight opportunities that could produce another anomaly. Recent milestones, including the April NG-3 reused-booster flight, underscore ongoing engine and reusability progress on the BE-4 methane engines, but pad constraints and testing priorities at Stennis Space Center limit exposure through October. Any unexpected acceleration in pad certification could serve as the main near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
音量
$383終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Blue Origin’s severely damaged Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral remains the dominant factor behind the 89.5% market-implied odds against another New Glenn explosion by October 31. The May 28, 2026 static-fire failure destroyed a first-stage booster and heavily damaged the sole operational pad, prompting a shift to a hybrid horizontal/vertical assembly process rather than full reconstruction of the transporter-erector. With recovery work still underway in early September and no launches or static-fire tests scheduled before late 2026, the company lacks near-term flight opportunities that could produce another anomaly. Recent milestones, including the April NG-3 reused-booster flight, underscore ongoing engine and reusability progress on the BE-4 methane engines, but pad constraints and testing priorities at Stennis Space Center limit exposure through October. Any unexpected acceleration in pad certification could serve as the main near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$383終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Blue Origin’s severely damaged Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral remains the dominant factor behind the 89.5% market-implied odds against another New Glenn explosion by October 31. The May 28, 2026 static-fire failure destroyed a first-stage booster and heavily damaged the sole operational pad, prompting a shift to a hybrid horizontal/vertical assembly process rather than full reconstruction of the transporter-erector. With recovery work still underway in early September and no launches or static-fire tests scheduled before late 2026, the company lacks near-term flight opportunities that could produce another anomaly. Recent milestones, including the April NG-3 reused-booster flight, underscore ongoing engine and reusability progress on the BE-4 methane engines, but pad constraints and testing priorities at Stennis Space Center limit exposure through October. Any unexpected acceleration in pad certification could serve as the main near-term catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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