Incumbent Democrat Dave Min holds a commanding lead in the CA-47 House race, reflected in trader consensus at 94.5% probability of victory over Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux at 5.5%. Min secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary with 45.4% of the vote, advancing alongside Le Roux, who received 25%. The district’s partisan composition, consistent Democratic registration edge, and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic underpin the positioning. Min’s substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $3 million compared to Le Roux’s roughly $200,000–$270,000, has supported stronger campaign infrastructure. Forecasters cite the seat’s historical lean and Min’s 2024 win margin as structural barriers. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national partisan shift could narrow the gap, though none have materialized in recent months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
2026/11/02
デイブ・ミン（民主党）
95%
ジェニー・ルルー（共和党）
6%
$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
2026/11/02
デイブ・ミン（民主党）
$3,261 Vol.
95%
ジェニー・ルルー（共和党）
$10,876 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min holds a commanding lead in the CA-47 House race, reflected in trader consensus at 94.5% probability of victory over Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux at 5.5%. Min secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary with 45.4% of the vote, advancing alongside Le Roux, who received 25%. The district’s partisan composition, consistent Democratic registration edge, and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic underpin the positioning. Min’s substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $3 million compared to Le Roux’s roughly $200,000–$270,000, has supported stronger campaign infrastructure. Forecasters cite the seat’s historical lean and Min’s 2024 win margin as structural barriers. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national partisan shift could narrow the gap, though none have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$14,137終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min holds a commanding lead in the CA-47 House race, reflected in trader consensus at 94.5% probability of victory over Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux at 5.5%. Min secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary with 45.4% of the vote, advancing alongside Le Roux, who received 25%. The district’s partisan composition, consistent Democratic registration edge, and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic underpin the positioning. Min’s substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $3 million compared to Le Roux’s roughly $200,000–$270,000, has supported stronger campaign infrastructure. Forecasters cite the seat’s historical lean and Min’s 2024 win margin as structural barriers. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national partisan shift could narrow the gap, though none have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$14,137終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Dave Min holds a commanding lead in the CA-47 House race, reflected in trader consensus at 94.5% probability of victory over Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux at 5.5%. Min secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary with 45.4% of the vote, advancing alongside Le Roux, who received 25%. The district’s partisan composition, consistent Democratic registration edge, and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic underpin the positioning. Min’s substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $3 million compared to Le Roux’s roughly $200,000–$270,000, has supported stronger campaign infrastructure. Forecasters cite the seat’s historical lean and Min’s 2024 win margin as structural barriers. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national partisan shift could narrow the gap, though none have materialized in recent months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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