Incumbent Jahana Hayes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 5th congressional district due to the area’s Democratic lean, her established record since 2019, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.2 million compared with challenger Chris Shea’s roughly $300,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3, 2026 general election as Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting consistent past margins and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. Shea secured the GOP nomination in the August primary but faces structural headwinds in a D+6 partisan environment. Trader consensus at 94.7% for Hayes incorporates these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as national economic shifts, turnout surges, or unforeseen candidate events could still narrow the implied probability before ballots close.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
ジャハナ・ヘイズ（民主党）
95%
クリス・シェイ（共和党）
5%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
ジャハナ・ヘイズ（民主党）
$5,328 Vol.
95%
クリス・シェイ（共和党）
$3,497 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jahana Hayes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 5th congressional district due to the area’s Democratic lean, her established record since 2019, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.2 million compared with challenger Chris Shea’s roughly $300,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3, 2026 general election as Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting consistent past margins and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. Shea secured the GOP nomination in the August primary but faces structural headwinds in a D+6 partisan environment. Trader consensus at 94.7% for Hayes incorporates these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as national economic shifts, turnout surges, or unforeseen candidate events could still narrow the implied probability before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
音量
$8,824終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:47 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jahana Hayes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 5th congressional district due to the area’s Democratic lean, her established record since 2019, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.2 million compared with challenger Chris Shea’s roughly $300,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3, 2026 general election as Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting consistent past margins and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. Shea secured the GOP nomination in the August primary but faces structural headwinds in a D+6 partisan environment. Trader consensus at 94.7% for Hayes incorporates these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as national economic shifts, turnout surges, or unforeseen candidate events could still narrow the implied probability before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$8,824終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:47 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Jahana Hayes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 5th congressional district due to the area’s Democratic lean, her established record since 2019, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.2 million compared with challenger Chris Shea’s roughly $300,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3, 2026 general election as Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting consistent past margins and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. Shea secured the GOP nomination in the August primary but faces structural headwinds in a D+6 partisan environment. Trader consensus at 94.7% for Hayes incorporates these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as national economic shifts, turnout surges, or unforeseen candidate events could still narrow the implied probability before ballots close.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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