Erdoğan’s second presidential term, secured in the 2023 election under Turkey’s executive presidential system, runs through 2028, with the next scheduled vote set for May of that year. The ruling AKP-MHP alliance has repeatedly signaled plans to hold elections on or near that timeline, including recent September 2026 statements endorsing his candidacy then, while exploring constitutional pathways such as a parliamentary early-election vote to address term limits. Opposition parties remain fragmented after court actions against the CHP and the jailing of key figures like Ekrem İmamoğlu, reducing near-term pressure for change. These structural and political realities underpin trader consensus that no resignation, removal, or forced exit will occur before the December 2026 cutoff, though late-breaking health developments or unexpected parliamentary maneuvers could theoretically alter the outlook.