Greater Tunb remains under de facto Iranian administration as part of Hormozgan province alongside a military garrison and IRGC infrastructure used to monitor and influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted coastal defenses and missile facilities on the island, further degrading Iranian capabilities without altering territorial control. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty over Greater Tunb and the other two disputed islands, supported by GCC statements urging resolution via negotiation or the International Court of Justice, while Iran has reinforced its presence through missile deployments and official national day observances. Recent escalations, including UAE interception of an Iranian drone and suspension of bilateral trade in late August, have heightened diplomatic friction but produced no shift in on-the-ground authority. Trader sentiment reflects the durability of Iran’s 1971-established position absent a major diplomatic breakthrough or sustained military campaign capable of forcing withdrawal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$54,868 Vol.
2026/08/31
8月31日
1%
9月30日
6%
$54,868 Vol.
8月31日
$32,153 Vol.
1%
9月30日
$207 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Greater Tunb remains under de facto Iranian administration as part of Hormozgan province alongside a military garrison and IRGC infrastructure used to monitor and influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted coastal defenses and missile facilities on the island, further degrading Iranian capabilities without altering territorial control. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty over Greater Tunb and the other two disputed islands, supported by GCC statements urging resolution via negotiation or the International Court of Justice, while Iran has reinforced its presence through missile deployments and official national day observances. Recent escalations, including UAE interception of an Iranian drone and suspension of bilateral trade in late August, have heightened diplomatic friction but produced no shift in on-the-ground authority. Trader sentiment reflects the durability of Iran’s 1971-established position absent a major diplomatic breakthrough or sustained military campaign capable of forcing withdrawal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
音量
$54,868終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Greater Tunb remains under de facto Iranian administration as part of Hormozgan province alongside a military garrison and IRGC infrastructure used to monitor and influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted coastal defenses and missile facilities on the island, further degrading Iranian capabilities without altering territorial control. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty over Greater Tunb and the other two disputed islands, supported by GCC statements urging resolution via negotiation or the International Court of Justice, while Iran has reinforced its presence through missile deployments and official national day observances. Recent escalations, including UAE interception of an Iranian drone and suspension of bilateral trade in late August, have heightened diplomatic friction but produced no shift in on-the-ground authority. Trader sentiment reflects the durability of Iran’s 1971-established position absent a major diplomatic breakthrough or sustained military campaign capable of forcing withdrawal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$54,868終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Greater Tunb remains under de facto Iranian administration as part of Hormozgan province alongside a military garrison and IRGC infrastructure used to monitor and influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted coastal defenses and missile facilities on the island, further degrading Iranian capabilities without altering territorial control. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty over Greater Tunb and the other two disputed islands, supported by GCC statements urging resolution via negotiation or the International Court of Justice, while Iran has reinforced its presence through missile deployments and official national day observances. Recent escalations, including UAE interception of an Iranian drone and suspension of bilateral trade in late August, have heightened diplomatic friction but produced no shift in on-the-ground authority. Trader sentiment reflects the durability of Iran’s 1971-established position absent a major diplomatic breakthrough or sustained military campaign capable of forcing withdrawal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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