**Trader consensus clustering around 4–4.5 million total votes in the November 3 Illinois U.S. Senate contest reflects expectations of elevated midterm participation following the unusually high March Democratic primary turnout, tempered by standard off-year drop-off patterns.** The Democratic primary drew roughly 1.28 million votes—an approximately 50% increase over 2022—driven by competitive races and reported enthusiasm among party voters. This has prompted Democratic strategists to anticipate stronger general-election mobilization than in recent midterms, while Republicans emphasize outreach to groups such as gun owners to lift their side. Historical Illinois midterm totals, the open-seat dynamic after Dick Durbin’s retirement, and the non-competitive nature of the general election between Democrat Juliana Stratton and Republican Don Tracy keep projections centered in the 4–4.5 million range. Closer to Election Day, shifts in early voting data, national political developments, or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts could move probabilities between adjacent brackets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4.25M-4.5M 41%
4M-4.25M 32%
4.5M-4.75M 14%
3.75M-4M 11%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
<3.25M
5%
3.25M-3.5M
3%
3.5M-3.75M
4%
3.75M-4M
11%
4M-4.25M
32%
4.25M-4.5M
41%
4.5M-4.75M
14%
4.75M+
1%
4.25M-4.5M 41%
4M-4.25M 32%
4.5M-4.75M 14%
3.75M-4M 11%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
<3.25M
$536 Vol.
5%
3.25M-3.5M
$1,437 Vol.
3%
3.5M-3.75M
$439 Vol.
4%
3.75M-4M
$385 Vol.
11%
4M-4.25M
$1,773 Vol.
32%
4.25M-4.5M
$1,630 Vol.
41%
4.5M-4.75M
$1,539 Vol.
14%
4.75M+
$850 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus clustering around 4–4.5 million total votes in the November 3 Illinois U.S. Senate contest reflects expectations of elevated midterm participation following the unusually high March Democratic primary turnout, tempered by standard off-year drop-off patterns.**
The Democratic primary drew roughly 1.28 million votes—an approximately 50% increase over 2022—driven by competitive races and reported enthusiasm among party voters. This has prompted Democratic strategists to anticipate stronger general-election mobilization than in recent midterms, while Republicans emphasize outreach to groups such as gun owners to lift their side. Historical Illinois midterm totals, the open-seat dynamic after Dick Durbin’s retirement, and the non-competitive nature of the general election between Democrat Juliana Stratton and Republican Don Tracy keep projections centered in the 4–4.5 million range. Closer to Election Day, shifts in early voting data, national political developments, or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts could move probabilities between adjacent brackets.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET
音量
$8,589終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus clustering around 4–4.5 million total votes in the November 3 Illinois U.S. Senate contest reflects expectations of elevated midterm participation following the unusually high March Democratic primary turnout, tempered by standard off-year drop-off patterns.**
The Democratic primary drew roughly 1.28 million votes—an approximately 50% increase over 2022—driven by competitive races and reported enthusiasm among party voters. This has prompted Democratic strategists to anticipate stronger general-election mobilization than in recent midterms, while Republicans emphasize outreach to groups such as gun owners to lift their side. Historical Illinois midterm totals, the open-seat dynamic after Dick Durbin’s retirement, and the non-competitive nature of the general election between Democrat Juliana Stratton and Republican Don Tracy keep projections centered in the 4–4.5 million range. Closer to Election Day, shifts in early voting data, national political developments, or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts could move probabilities between adjacent brackets.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$8,589終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus clustering around 4–4.5 million total votes in the November 3 Illinois U.S. Senate contest reflects expectations of elevated midterm participation following the unusually high March Democratic primary turnout, tempered by standard off-year drop-off patterns.** The Democratic primary drew roughly 1.28 million votes—an approximately 50% increase over 2022—driven by competitive races and reported enthusiasm among party voters. This has prompted Democratic strategists to anticipate stronger general-election mobilization than in recent midterms, while Republicans emphasize outreach to groups such as gun owners to lift their side. Historical Illinois midterm totals, the open-seat dynamic after Dick Durbin’s retirement, and the non-competitive nature of the general election between Democrat Juliana Stratton and Republican Don Tracy keep projections centered in the 4–4.5 million range. Closer to Election Day, shifts in early voting data, national political developments, or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts could move probabilities between adjacent brackets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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