Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election pits Republican incumbent Ashley Moody against Democrat Angie Nixon in a state that has trended strongly Republican, with Trump carrying it by double digits in 2024. Trader consensus centers on the 7.75M–8.25M vote range because total turnout will likely reflect a typical midterm participation rate among roughly 13.5 million registered voters, where Republicans hold a sizable registration edge and no-party-affiliation voters often decide the final count. Recent August primaries showed Republicans leading in raw ballots cast despite Democrats posting higher rates relative to their smaller registration base, while early and mail voting patterns plus get-out-the-vote intensity among independents and core supporters remain the main variables that could push totals higher or lower within the narrow band.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日800万〜825万 47%
775万〜800万 30.4%
750万〜775万 28.8%
900万以上 19%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
700万未満
1%
700万〜725万
<1%
725万～750万
6%
750万〜775万
29%
775万〜800万
30%
800万〜825万
47%
825万〜850万
8%
850万～875万
4%
875万〜900万
17%
900万以上
19%
800万〜825万 47%
775万〜800万 30.4%
750万〜775万 28.8%
900万以上 19%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
700万未満
$79 Vol.
1%
700万〜725万
$516 Vol.
<1%
725万～750万
$1,340 Vol.
6%
750万〜775万
$48 Vol.
29%
775万〜800万
$39 Vol.
30%
800万〜825万
$509 Vol.
47%
825万〜850万
$97 Vol.
8%
850万～875万
$1,179 Vol.
4%
875万〜900万
$86 Vol.
17%
900万以上
$39 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election pits Republican incumbent Ashley Moody against Democrat Angie Nixon in a state that has trended strongly Republican, with Trump carrying it by double digits in 2024. Trader consensus centers on the 7.75M–8.25M vote range because total turnout will likely reflect a typical midterm participation rate among roughly 13.5 million registered voters, where Republicans hold a sizable registration edge and no-party-affiliation voters often decide the final count. Recent August primaries showed Republicans leading in raw ballots cast despite Democrats posting higher rates relative to their smaller registration base, while early and mail voting patterns plus get-out-the-vote intensity among independents and core supporters remain the main variables that could push totals higher or lower within the narrow band.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 10:06 AM ET
音量
$3,932終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:06 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election pits Republican incumbent Ashley Moody against Democrat Angie Nixon in a state that has trended strongly Republican, with Trump carrying it by double digits in 2024. Trader consensus centers on the 7.75M–8.25M vote range because total turnout will likely reflect a typical midterm participation rate among roughly 13.5 million registered voters, where Republicans hold a sizable registration edge and no-party-affiliation voters often decide the final count. Recent August primaries showed Republicans leading in raw ballots cast despite Democrats posting higher rates relative to their smaller registration base, while early and mail voting patterns plus get-out-the-vote intensity among independents and core supporters remain the main variables that could push totals higher or lower within the narrow band.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$3,932終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:06 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election pits Republican incumbent Ashley Moody against Democrat Angie Nixon in a state that has trended strongly Republican, with Trump carrying it by double digits in 2024. Trader consensus centers on the 7.75M–8.25M vote range because total turnout will likely reflect a typical midterm participation rate among roughly 13.5 million registered voters, where Republicans hold a sizable registration edge and no-party-affiliation voters often decide the final count. Recent August primaries showed Republicans leading in raw ballots cast despite Democrats posting higher rates relative to their smaller registration base, while early and mail voting patterns plus get-out-the-vote intensity among independents and core supporters remain the main variables that could push totals higher or lower within the narrow band.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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