Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district, a seat rated safe or solid Republican by multiple forecasters, owing to the district's consistent partisan lean in northwestern Louisiana and his prior 85.8% victory in 2024. Johnson's fundraising edge exceeds $20 million compared to Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, each under $300,000, while additional Republican primary opponents have not consolidated meaningful support ahead of the November 3 jungle primary. This dynamic underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for the Republican Party. Scenarios that could realistically shift probabilities include a major personal or legal development affecting Johnson, an unexpected surge in Democratic turnout, or a late realignment among Republican voters that forces a December runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$11,997 Vol.
$11,997 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
95%
民主党
6%
$11,997 Vol.
$11,997 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
$3,671 Vol.
95%
民主党
$8,326 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district, a seat rated safe or solid Republican by multiple forecasters, owing to the district's consistent partisan lean in northwestern Louisiana and his prior 85.8% victory in 2024. Johnson's fundraising edge exceeds $20 million compared to Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, each under $300,000, while additional Republican primary opponents have not consolidated meaningful support ahead of the November 3 jungle primary. This dynamic underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for the Republican Party. Scenarios that could realistically shift probabilities include a major personal or legal development affecting Johnson, an unexpected surge in Democratic turnout, or a late realignment among Republican voters that forces a December runoff.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$11,997終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district, a seat rated safe or solid Republican by multiple forecasters, owing to the district's consistent partisan lean in northwestern Louisiana and his prior 85.8% victory in 2024. Johnson's fundraising edge exceeds $20 million compared to Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, each under $300,000, while additional Republican primary opponents have not consolidated meaningful support ahead of the November 3 jungle primary. This dynamic underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for the Republican Party. Scenarios that could realistically shift probabilities include a major personal or legal development affecting Johnson, an unexpected surge in Democratic turnout, or a late realignment among Republican voters that forces a December runoff.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$11,997終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district, a seat rated safe or solid Republican by multiple forecasters, owing to the district's consistent partisan lean in northwestern Louisiana and his prior 85.8% victory in 2024. Johnson's fundraising edge exceeds $20 million compared to Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, each under $300,000, while additional Republican primary opponents have not consolidated meaningful support ahead of the November 3 jungle primary. This dynamic underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for the Republican Party. Scenarios that could realistically shift probabilities include a major personal or legal development affecting Johnson, an unexpected surge in Democratic turnout, or a late realignment among Republican voters that forces a December runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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