No new pandemic has emerged in 2026, supporting the 94.5% market-implied odds against it as COVID-19 remains in an endemic phase with no WHO pandemic declaration. The primary driver is the absence of any novel pathogen achieving sustained global human-to-human transmission at scale, despite the Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC in the DRC and Uganda since May, which shows regional spread without evidence of widespread international dissemination or exceeding typical outbreak thresholds. Mpox and polio PHEICs also remain contained or lower-risk. Surveillance data from WHO and national agencies indicate moderate overall threats, with historical patterns showing pandemics require exceptional conditions like high transmissibility and global seeding that current outbreaks lack. New data releases or model updates could shift views if a variant or spillover escalates rapidly before year-end.