Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” leads the VMA Video of the Year market at 55.5% implied probability, driven by its record-breaking streaming numbers, Billboard Hot 100 dominance, and Swift’s history of five prior wins in the category. The closely matched field features Madonna’s ambitious 14-minute “Confessions II – The Film” at 24%, alongside Ariana Grande, Bruno Mars, Sabrina Carpenter, and GENER8ion featuring Yung Lean. Momentum favors Swift’s self-directed visual and “Life of a Showgirl” era campaign, though Madonna’s career-high nomination total and upcoming opening performance could sway voter sentiment. The Sept. 27 ceremony in Los Angeles remains the key catalyst, with guild and critic precursors offering limited signals in this fan-voted race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年VMAビデオオブザイヤー
The Fate of Ophelia(テイラー・スウィフト) 56%
Storm(Gener8ion feat. Yung Lean) 26%
Confessions II – The Film(マドンナ) 24%
Hate That I Made You Love Me(アリアナ・グランデ) 12%
The Fate of Ophelia(テイラー・スウィフト)
56%
Storm(Gener8ion feat. Yung Lean)
26%
Confessions II – The Film(マドンナ)
24%
Hate That I Made You Love Me(アリアナ・グランデ)
12%
I Just Might(ブルーノ・マーズ)
8%
Tears(サブリナ・カーペンター)
8%
The Fate of Ophelia(テイラー・スウィフト) 56%
Storm(Gener8ion feat. Yung Lean) 26%
Confessions II – The Film(マドンナ) 24%
Hate That I Made You Love Me(アリアナ・グランデ) 12%
The Fate of Ophelia(テイラー・スウィフト)
56%
Storm(Gener8ion feat. Yung Lean)
26%
Confessions II – The Film(マドンナ)
24%
Hate That I Made You Love Me(アリアナ・グランデ)
12%
I Just Might(ブルーノ・マーズ)
8%
Tears(サブリナ・カーペンター)
8%
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日: Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” leads the VMA Video of the Year market at 55.5% implied probability, driven by its record-breaking streaming numbers, Billboard Hot 100 dominance, and Swift’s history of five prior wins in the category. The closely matched field features Madonna’s ambitious 14-minute “Confessions II – The Film” at 24%, alongside Ariana Grande, Bruno Mars, Sabrina Carpenter, and GENER8ion featuring Yung Lean. Momentum favors Swift’s self-directed visual and “Life of a Showgirl” era campaign, though Madonna’s career-high nomination total and upcoming opening performance could sway voter sentiment. The Sept. 27 ceremony in Los Angeles remains the key catalyst, with guild and critic precursors offering limited signals in this fan-voted race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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