Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of presidential resignations and the absence of verified developments indicating otherwise. As incumbent, Trump has shown no public signals of intent to step down, while maintaining focus on administration priorities and party dynamics during the current term. Senate confirmation patterns and executive branch norms further support continuity absent extraordinary circumstances. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health events requiring medical incapacity determinations, major legal rulings with direct personal consequences, or unforeseen family or institutional pressures, though none have materialized in recent months to alter the prevailing trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$23,487 Vol.
$23,487 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
3% 確率
$23,487 Vol.
$23,487 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of presidential resignations and the absence of verified developments indicating otherwise. As incumbent, Trump has shown no public signals of intent to step down, while maintaining focus on administration priorities and party dynamics during the current term. Senate confirmation patterns and executive branch norms further support continuity absent extraordinary circumstances. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health events requiring medical incapacity determinations, major legal rulings with direct personal consequences, or unforeseen family or institutional pressures, though none have materialized in recent months to alter the prevailing trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
音量
$23,487終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of presidential resignations and the absence of verified developments indicating otherwise. As incumbent, Trump has shown no public signals of intent to step down, while maintaining focus on administration priorities and party dynamics during the current term. Senate confirmation patterns and executive branch norms further support continuity absent extraordinary circumstances. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health events requiring medical incapacity determinations, major legal rulings with direct personal consequences, or unforeseen family or institutional pressures, though none have materialized in recent months to alter the prevailing trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$23,487終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of presidential resignations and the absence of verified developments indicating otherwise. As incumbent, Trump has shown no public signals of intent to step down, while maintaining focus on administration priorities and party dynamics during the current term. Senate confirmation patterns and executive branch norms further support continuity absent extraordinary circumstances. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health events requiring medical incapacity determinations, major legal rulings with direct personal consequences, or unforeseen family or institutional pressures, though none have materialized in recent months to alter the prevailing trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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