**No at 74.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5 kt-scale bolides, with NASA CNEOS fireball records showing roughly 0.3–0.5 such global events per year on average.** Sentry impact monitoring lists no credible threats from catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to deliver this energy in 2026, while recent small predicted impacts (such as 2026 RW1, under 1 m) produced far lower yields. Ongoing surveys including Catalina and Mt. Lemmon continue to detect only meter-class or smaller objects with negligible probabilities. A noted Q1 2026 uptick in bright fireballs lacked confirmed energies reaching the 5 kt threshold. Continuous CNEOS updates and expanded NEO monitoring through year-end will refine the picture, but current data and model consensus support the market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
26% szansa
$313,828 Wol.
$313,828 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
26% szansa
$313,828 Wol.
$313,828 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 74.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5 kt-scale bolides, with NASA CNEOS fireball records showing roughly 0.3–0.5 such global events per year on average.** Sentry impact monitoring lists no credible threats from catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to deliver this energy in 2026, while recent small predicted impacts (such as 2026 RW1, under 1 m) produced far lower yields. Ongoing surveys including Catalina and Mt. Lemmon continue to detect only meter-class or smaller objects with negligible probabilities. A noted Q1 2026 uptick in bright fireballs lacked confirmed energies reaching the 5 kt threshold. Continuous CNEOS updates and expanded NEO monitoring through year-end will refine the picture, but current data and model consensus support the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$313,828Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 74.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5 kt-scale bolides, with NASA CNEOS fireball records showing roughly 0.3–0.5 such global events per year on average.** Sentry impact monitoring lists no credible threats from catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to deliver this energy in 2026, while recent small predicted impacts (such as 2026 RW1, under 1 m) produced far lower yields. Ongoing surveys including Catalina and Mt. Lemmon continue to detect only meter-class or smaller objects with negligible probabilities. A noted Q1 2026 uptick in bright fireballs lacked confirmed energies reaching the 5 kt threshold. Continuous CNEOS updates and expanded NEO monitoring through year-end will refine the picture, but current data and model consensus support the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$313,828Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...**No at 74.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5 kt-scale bolides, with NASA CNEOS fireball records showing roughly 0.3–0.5 such global events per year on average.** Sentry impact monitoring lists no credible threats from catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to deliver this energy in 2026, while recent small predicted impacts (such as 2026 RW1, under 1 m) produced far lower yields. Ongoing surveys including Catalina and Mt. Lemmon continue to detect only meter-class or smaller objects with negligible probabilities. A noted Q1 2026 uptick in bright fireballs lacked confirmed energies reaching the 5 kt threshold. Continuous CNEOS updates and expanded NEO monitoring through year-end will refine the picture, but current data and model consensus support the market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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