Trader consensus at 77% for “No” on the Natural Disaster in 2026? market reflects the absence through late August of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact. Official records show multiple lower-magnitude events, including Indonesia’s M7.7 quake, Colombia’s recent seismic activity, and the August Himalayan glacier-collapse flood, yet none meet the strict resolution thresholds. Historical baselines indicate annual probabilities below 10–15% for these extremes, and with four months remaining, current NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring data continue to show no imminent alerts that would shift the implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
23% szansa
$243,271 Wol.
$243,271 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
23% szansa
$243,271 Wol.
$243,271 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus at 77% for “No” on the Natural Disaster in 2026? market reflects the absence through late August of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact. Official records show multiple lower-magnitude events, including Indonesia’s M7.7 quake, Colombia’s recent seismic activity, and the August Himalayan glacier-collapse flood, yet none meet the strict resolution thresholds. Historical baselines indicate annual probabilities below 10–15% for these extremes, and with four months remaining, current NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring data continue to show no imminent alerts that would shift the implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$243,271Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus at 77% for “No” on the Natural Disaster in 2026? market reflects the absence through late August of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact. Official records show multiple lower-magnitude events, including Indonesia’s M7.7 quake, Colombia’s recent seismic activity, and the August Himalayan glacier-collapse flood, yet none meet the strict resolution thresholds. Historical baselines indicate annual probabilities below 10–15% for these extremes, and with four months remaining, current NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring data continue to show no imminent alerts that would shift the implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$243,271Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at 77% for “No” on the Natural Disaster in 2026? market reflects the absence through late August of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact. Official records show multiple lower-magnitude events, including Indonesia’s M7.7 quake, Colombia’s recent seismic activity, and the August Himalayan glacier-collapse flood, yet none meet the strict resolution thresholds. Historical baselines indicate annual probabilities below 10–15% for these extremes, and with four months remaining, current NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring data continue to show no imminent alerts that would shift the implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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