Strong trader consensus against a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 reflects the brief remaining window of roughly four months and the extreme rarity of such events, with only five instrumentally recorded globally since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku event. USGS data through August 2026 show typical global rates of magnitude 7+ activity, including several 7.7–7.8 events this year but a maximum of 8.8 in 2025, consistent with long-term averages rather than clustering that might precede a megathrust rupture. Subduction-zone recurrence intervals for M9+ quakes often span centuries, and current monitoring reveals no anomalous foreshock sequences or strain indicators. A sudden event remains possible though statistically improbable without preceding signals in the final months.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
7% szansa
$312,352 Wol.
$312,352 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% szansa
$312,352 Wol.
$312,352 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Strong trader consensus against a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 reflects the brief remaining window of roughly four months and the extreme rarity of such events, with only five instrumentally recorded globally since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku event. USGS data through August 2026 show typical global rates of magnitude 7+ activity, including several 7.7–7.8 events this year but a maximum of 8.8 in 2025, consistent with long-term averages rather than clustering that might precede a megathrust rupture. Subduction-zone recurrence intervals for M9+ quakes often span centuries, and current monitoring reveals no anomalous foreshock sequences or strain indicators. A sudden event remains possible though statistically improbable without preceding signals in the final months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$312,352Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Strong trader consensus against a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 reflects the brief remaining window of roughly four months and the extreme rarity of such events, with only five instrumentally recorded globally since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku event. USGS data through August 2026 show typical global rates of magnitude 7+ activity, including several 7.7–7.8 events this year but a maximum of 8.8 in 2025, consistent with long-term averages rather than clustering that might precede a megathrust rupture. Subduction-zone recurrence intervals for M9+ quakes often span centuries, and current monitoring reveals no anomalous foreshock sequences or strain indicators. A sudden event remains possible though statistically improbable without preceding signals in the final months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Wolumen
$312,352Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Strong trader consensus against a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 reflects the brief remaining window of roughly four months and the extreme rarity of such events, with only five instrumentally recorded globally since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku event. USGS data through August 2026 show typical global rates of magnitude 7+ activity, including several 7.7–7.8 events this year but a maximum of 8.8 in 2025, consistent with long-term averages rather than clustering that might precede a megathrust rupture. Subduction-zone recurrence intervals for M9+ quakes often span centuries, and current monitoring reveals no anomalous foreshock sequences or strain indicators. A sudden event remains possible though statistically improbable without preceding signals in the final months.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania