Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including Central Military Commission vice chairmen and other top commanders in 2025 and early 2026, has removed potential centers of institutional resistance and reinforced direct oversight via the commission he chairs. These actions, framed officially around corruption and discipline, have left the military high command heavily staffed by loyalists with limited independent power bases. No coordinated challenges from state actors have surfaced in credible reporting over the past year, supporting trader assessments that place the probability of a coup attempt before the end of 2026 near 4 percent. Remaining uncertainty stems from the opaque nature of elite politics, where unforeseen succession pressures ahead of the 2027 party congress or acute external shocks could still create narrow openings for factional maneuvering.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano4% szansa
$156,141 Wol.
$156,141 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% szansa
$156,141 Wol.
$156,141 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including Central Military Commission vice chairmen and other top commanders in 2025 and early 2026, has removed potential centers of institutional resistance and reinforced direct oversight via the commission he chairs. These actions, framed officially around corruption and discipline, have left the military high command heavily staffed by loyalists with limited independent power bases. No coordinated challenges from state actors have surfaced in credible reporting over the past year, supporting trader assessments that place the probability of a coup attempt before the end of 2026 near 4 percent. Remaining uncertainty stems from the opaque nature of elite politics, where unforeseen succession pressures ahead of the 2027 party congress or acute external shocks could still create narrow openings for factional maneuvering.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Wolumen
$156,141Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including Central Military Commission vice chairmen and other top commanders in 2025 and early 2026, has removed potential centers of institutional resistance and reinforced direct oversight via the commission he chairs. These actions, framed officially around corruption and discipline, have left the military high command heavily staffed by loyalists with limited independent power bases. No coordinated challenges from state actors have surfaced in credible reporting over the past year, supporting trader assessments that place the probability of a coup attempt before the end of 2026 near 4 percent. Remaining uncertainty stems from the opaque nature of elite politics, where unforeseen succession pressures ahead of the 2027 party congress or acute external shocks could still create narrow openings for factional maneuvering.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$156,141Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including Central Military Commission vice chairmen and other top commanders in 2025 and early 2026, has removed potential centers of institutional resistance and reinforced direct oversight via the commission he chairs. These actions, framed officially around corruption and discipline, have left the military high command heavily staffed by loyalists with limited independent power bases. No coordinated challenges from state actors have surfaced in credible reporting over the past year, supporting trader assessments that place the probability of a coup attempt before the end of 2026 near 4 percent. Remaining uncertainty stems from the opaque nature of elite politics, where unforeseen succession pressures ahead of the 2027 party congress or acute external shocks could still create narrow openings for factional maneuvering.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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