Internal rivalries among Ukraine’s security services have shaped trader views on the low-probability “Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026” market. A September 2026 shootout in Kyiv between the SBU and HUR over an alleged Russian-linked plot prompted President Zelensky to publicly rebuke the agencies, highlighting friction without escalating to coordinated overthrow efforts. Parallel anti-corruption raids, leadership changes following the July 2026 defense minister dismissal and protests, and historic lows in Zelensky approval have fueled speculation about elite tensions, yet no qualifying coup execution has materialized. Traders price the outcome near 7 percent, reflecting the barriers posed by wartime cohesion, institutional pushback, and the market’s narrow definition that excludes foiled plots. Scheduled parliamentary actions on prosecutor oversight and ongoing graft investigations remain the nearest catalysts that could alter positioning before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$169,867 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
6%
$169,867 Wol.
December 31
$152,031 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal rivalries among Ukraine’s security services have shaped trader views on the low-probability “Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026” market. A September 2026 shootout in Kyiv between the SBU and HUR over an alleged Russian-linked plot prompted President Zelensky to publicly rebuke the agencies, highlighting friction without escalating to coordinated overthrow efforts. Parallel anti-corruption raids, leadership changes following the July 2026 defense minister dismissal and protests, and historic lows in Zelensky approval have fueled speculation about elite tensions, yet no qualifying coup execution has materialized. Traders price the outcome near 7 percent, reflecting the barriers posed by wartime cohesion, institutional pushback, and the market’s narrow definition that excludes foiled plots. Scheduled parliamentary actions on prosecutor oversight and ongoing graft investigations remain the nearest catalysts that could alter positioning before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$169,867Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal rivalries among Ukraine’s security services have shaped trader views on the low-probability “Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026” market. A September 2026 shootout in Kyiv between the SBU and HUR over an alleged Russian-linked plot prompted President Zelensky to publicly rebuke the agencies, highlighting friction without escalating to coordinated overthrow efforts. Parallel anti-corruption raids, leadership changes following the July 2026 defense minister dismissal and protests, and historic lows in Zelensky approval have fueled speculation about elite tensions, yet no qualifying coup execution has materialized. Traders price the outcome near 7 percent, reflecting the barriers posed by wartime cohesion, institutional pushback, and the market’s narrow definition that excludes foiled plots. Scheduled parliamentary actions on prosecutor oversight and ongoing graft investigations remain the nearest catalysts that could alter positioning before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$169,867Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Internal rivalries among Ukraine’s security services have shaped trader views on the low-probability “Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026” market. A September 2026 shootout in Kyiv between the SBU and HUR over an alleged Russian-linked plot prompted President Zelensky to publicly rebuke the agencies, highlighting friction without escalating to coordinated overthrow efforts. Parallel anti-corruption raids, leadership changes following the July 2026 defense minister dismissal and protests, and historic lows in Zelensky approval have fueled speculation about elite tensions, yet no qualifying coup execution has materialized. Traders price the outcome near 7 percent, reflecting the barriers posed by wartime cohesion, institutional pushback, and the market’s narrow definition that excludes foiled plots. Scheduled parliamentary actions on prosecutor oversight and ongoing graft investigations remain the nearest catalysts that could alter positioning before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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