Russia’s ongoing military offensive in eastern Ukraine and the Kremlin’s August 2026 declaration that bilateral talks are on a “deep pause” underpin trader confidence that no peace agreement will be signed by October 31. Formal negotiations have remained stalled since early 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, with Russia reiterating demands for full control of Donetsk and other maximalist territorial and security conditions that Ukraine continues to reject. Diplomatic efforts, including recent U.S. contacts, have produced no movement toward a ceasefire or framework acceptable to both sides amid active combat operations. While rapid battlefield shifts, new high-level U.S. intervention, or an unforeseen bilateral breakthrough could theoretically compress timelines, current positions and the short remaining window make such developments improbable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano5% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 31, 2026
5% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia’s ongoing military offensive in eastern Ukraine and the Kremlin’s August 2026 declaration that bilateral talks are on a “deep pause” underpin trader confidence that no peace agreement will be signed by October 31. Formal negotiations have remained stalled since early 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, with Russia reiterating demands for full control of Donetsk and other maximalist territorial and security conditions that Ukraine continues to reject. Diplomatic efforts, including recent U.S. contacts, have produced no movement toward a ceasefire or framework acceptable to both sides amid active combat operations. While rapid battlefield shifts, new high-level U.S. intervention, or an unforeseen bilateral breakthrough could theoretically compress timelines, current positions and the short remaining window make such developments improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$712Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia’s ongoing military offensive in eastern Ukraine and the Kremlin’s August 2026 declaration that bilateral talks are on a “deep pause” underpin trader confidence that no peace agreement will be signed by October 31. Formal negotiations have remained stalled since early 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, with Russia reiterating demands for full control of Donetsk and other maximalist territorial and security conditions that Ukraine continues to reject. Diplomatic efforts, including recent U.S. contacts, have produced no movement toward a ceasefire or framework acceptable to both sides amid active combat operations. While rapid battlefield shifts, new high-level U.S. intervention, or an unforeseen bilateral breakthrough could theoretically compress timelines, current positions and the short remaining window make such developments improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$712Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Russia’s ongoing military offensive in eastern Ukraine and the Kremlin’s August 2026 declaration that bilateral talks are on a “deep pause” underpin trader confidence that no peace agreement will be signed by October 31. Formal negotiations have remained stalled since early 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, with Russia reiterating demands for full control of Donetsk and other maximalist territorial and security conditions that Ukraine continues to reject. Diplomatic efforts, including recent U.S. contacts, have produced no movement toward a ceasefire or framework acceptable to both sides amid active combat operations. While rapid battlefield shifts, new high-level U.S. intervention, or an unforeseen bilateral breakthrough could theoretically compress timelines, current positions and the short remaining window make such developments improbable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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