**Ongoing martial law, extended through at least 31 October 2026, combined with Ukraine’s constitutional bar on elections during wartime, continues to anchor Zelenskyy in office with no scheduled vote or transition mechanism before year-end.** Parliament has renewed the measure in 90-day increments since February 2022, and recent extensions reflect the active Russian invasion. Zelenskyy has explicitly rejected wartime balloting, describing it as a “tsunami” that would divide the country and benefit Moscow, most recently in late August 2026 following a public call for elections by former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov. Public sentiment and expert assessments reinforce this stance: polls show most Ukrainians favor deferring any vote until after active fighting ends, while logistical barriers—including security for troops and refugees, occupied territory, and funding—would require many months even after a ceasefire. With the war still underway and no near-term diplomatic breakthrough evident, the conditions for Zelenskyy’s departure by December 2026 remain absent. These structural and political realities underpin the market’s strong consensus that he will remain president.