Lula’s repeated reluctance to join multi-candidate televised debates, citing concerns over format and low-value exchanges, has kept the market near even odds despite three remaining events scheduled before the October 4 first round. He skipped the August 23 Band debate in favor of a controlled Record interview, and the September 14 consortium debate was canceled after he and Flávio Bolsonaro failed to confirm participation by the deadline. Recent polls showing a narrowing lead or statistical tie with Flávio Bolsonaro have prompted internal campaign discussions about reconsidering the strategy, particularly for the September 27 Record or October 1 Globo debates. Trader consensus at 55.5% for “Yes” reflects uncertainty over whether tightening conditions or public pressure will prompt a late appearance before the cutoff.