Meta's internal push to close the frontier gap with OpenAI and Anthropic drives current trader sentiment around the Watermelon large language model. Chief AI officer Alexandr Wang stated in July that the still-training successor to Muse Spark (codename Avocado) matches GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute, following the April Muse Spark debut and the September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3 with gains in coding and agentic capabilities. August reporting highlighted an October target for Watermelon, potentially as the base for Meta's consumer Hatch AI agent. Traders are weighing the credibility of Meta-only evaluations against typical training-to-release timelines, heavy 2026 infrastructure spend, and the risk of slippage amid rapid iteration by rivals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMeta's "Watermelon" model released by...?
Meta's "Watermelon" model released by...?
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
5%
October 31
59%
November 30
86%
$4,813 Wol.
September 30
$3,344 Wol.
5%
October 31
$1,046 Wol.
59%
November 30
$423 Wol.
86%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal push to close the frontier gap with OpenAI and Anthropic drives current trader sentiment around the Watermelon large language model. Chief AI officer Alexandr Wang stated in July that the still-training successor to Muse Spark (codename Avocado) matches GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute, following the April Muse Spark debut and the September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3 with gains in coding and agentic capabilities. August reporting highlighted an October target for Watermelon, potentially as the base for Meta's consumer Hatch AI agent. Traders are weighing the credibility of Meta-only evaluations against typical training-to-release timelines, heavy 2026 infrastructure spend, and the risk of slippage amid rapid iteration by rivals.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Wolumen
$4,813Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal push to close the frontier gap with OpenAI and Anthropic drives current trader sentiment around the Watermelon large language model. Chief AI officer Alexandr Wang stated in July that the still-training successor to Muse Spark (codename Avocado) matches GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute, following the April Muse Spark debut and the September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3 with gains in coding and agentic capabilities. August reporting highlighted an October target for Watermelon, potentially as the base for Meta's consumer Hatch AI agent. Traders are weighing the credibility of Meta-only evaluations against typical training-to-release timelines, heavy 2026 infrastructure spend, and the risk of slippage amid rapid iteration by rivals.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$4,813Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Meta's internal push to close the frontier gap with OpenAI and Anthropic drives current trader sentiment around the Watermelon large language model. Chief AI officer Alexandr Wang stated in July that the still-training successor to Muse Spark (codename Avocado) matches GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute, following the April Muse Spark debut and the September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3 with gains in coding and agentic capabilities. August reporting highlighted an October target for Watermelon, potentially as the base for Meta's consumer Hatch AI agent. Traders are weighing the credibility of Meta-only evaluations against typical training-to-release timelines, heavy 2026 infrastructure spend, and the risk of slippage amid rapid iteration by rivals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania