**Traders assign a 92.8% implied probability to “No” on NATO Article 5 invocation before 2027 because no armed attack meeting the threshold has occurred or appears imminent in the narrow remaining window through December 2026.** Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine continues without direct spillover onto alliance territory, while U.S. intelligence assessments flag possible limited hybrid probes or sub-threshold actions on the eastern flank beginning this fall, yet rate a clear Article 5-triggering incursion as low-probability in the short term. NATO members reaffirmed collective-defense commitments at the July 2026 Ankara summit, and recent U.S. diplomatic warnings to Moscow have aimed to reinforce deterrence. Hybrid incidents—drone incursions, sabotage plots, and airspace violations—have prompted Article 4 consultations but not crossed into unambiguous armed attacks requiring full invocation. With the resolution horizon measured in months rather than years, the consensus reflects the absence of verified escalatory triggers and the alliance’s ongoing management of risks through existing channels.