**U.S. nuclear test markets reflect low trader-implied probabilities for an explosive detonation by late 2026 because the administration has repeatedly clarified that planned activities involve subcritical or non-yield experiments consistent with the existing zero-yield standard.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China prompted immediate Energy Department statements distinguishing these from full nuclear explosions, while the National Nuclear Security Administration’s stockpile stewardship program continues to certify reliability through simulation, hydrodynamics, and subcritical work at the Nevada National Security Site. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one treaty constraint without triggering explosive tests, and congressional interest in codifying the moratorium has reinforced caution. No verifiable explosive test has occurred since 1992, and infrastructure or certification timelines would need major acceleration for near-term resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAmerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
Amerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
$795,287 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
30 września 2026
1%
31 grudnia 2026
5%
$795,287 Wol.
30 września 2026
$57,555 Wol.
1%
31 grudnia 2026
$76,920 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear test markets reflect low trader-implied probabilities for an explosive detonation by late 2026 because the administration has repeatedly clarified that planned activities involve subcritical or non-yield experiments consistent with the existing zero-yield standard.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China prompted immediate Energy Department statements distinguishing these from full nuclear explosions, while the National Nuclear Security Administration’s stockpile stewardship program continues to certify reliability through simulation, hydrodynamics, and subcritical work at the Nevada National Security Site. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one treaty constraint without triggering explosive tests, and congressional interest in codifying the moratorium has reinforced caution. No verifiable explosive test has occurred since 1992, and infrastructure or certification timelines would need major acceleration for near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$795,287Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear test markets reflect low trader-implied probabilities for an explosive detonation by late 2026 because the administration has repeatedly clarified that planned activities involve subcritical or non-yield experiments consistent with the existing zero-yield standard.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China prompted immediate Energy Department statements distinguishing these from full nuclear explosions, while the National Nuclear Security Administration’s stockpile stewardship program continues to certify reliability through simulation, hydrodynamics, and subcritical work at the Nevada National Security Site. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one treaty constraint without triggering explosive tests, and congressional interest in codifying the moratorium has reinforced caution. No verifiable explosive test has occurred since 1992, and infrastructure or certification timelines would need major acceleration for near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$795,287Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...**U.S. nuclear test markets reflect low trader-implied probabilities for an explosive detonation by late 2026 because the administration has repeatedly clarified that planned activities involve subcritical or non-yield experiments consistent with the existing zero-yield standard.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China prompted immediate Energy Department statements distinguishing these from full nuclear explosions, while the National Nuclear Security Administration’s stockpile stewardship program continues to certify reliability through simulation, hydrodynamics, and subcritical work at the Nevada National Security Site. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed one treaty constraint without triggering explosive tests, and congressional interest in codifying the moratorium has reinforced caution. No verifiable explosive test has occurred since 1992, and infrastructure or certification timelines would need major acceleration for near-term resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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