Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” leads trader sentiment in the returning Best Dance category thanks to her record 13 VMA nominations overall, a high-profile opening performance slot, and the project’s strong critical and visual reception. The PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson collaboration sits second on the strength of its recent chart momentum and collaborative appeal. Remaining nominees, including Lady Gaga and Doechii’s “Runway,” Harry Styles’ “Aperture,” Tate McRae’s “Nobody’s Girl,” and Slayyyter’s “Dance…,” trail with limited precursor buzz or streaming data to shift the race. Fan voting closes September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, leaving room for late momentum swings in this closely contested field where Madonna’s industry narrative currently anchors the frontrunner position.