Tight cattle supplies from the U.S. herd's 75-year low of 86.2 million head continue to underpin elevated ground beef prices near $6.89 per pound retail in July 2026, up over 10% year-over-year per BLS data, amid slow herd rebuilding after prolonged drought and elevated feed costs. Wholesale 90% lean beef traded around 435 cents per pound in early September, with recent volatility reflecting packers' slaughter cuts and post-Labor Day demand softness. Expanded tariff-free imports of up to 300,000 metric tons of lean trimmings through late 2026 are boosting ground beef blending supply by roughly 7% in the first half of the year, tempering upside pressure. Key near-term catalysts include the pace of heifer retention, fall cattle-on-feed reports, and consumer demand resilience amid broader protein markets.