Recent Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and supporting agency data have aligned closely with the 1.38–1.41 °C range relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, driving the near-certain market-implied odds. Persistent greenhouse-gas forcing combined with developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific produced elevated sea-surface temperatures and land anomalies consistent with this narrow band, matching the upper end of multi-model ensemble means for the month. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño years and the 1991–2020 reference period further reinforced trader positioning. A late revision in official monthly aggregates, divergence between surface and satellite datasets, or an unexpected shift in the final pre-industrial adjustment could still alter resolution, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the stability of current observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAgosto de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC) (GREVES MAIS ALTAS)
Agosto de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC) (GREVES MAIS ALTAS)
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,755 Vol.
$20,755 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
2%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,755 Vol.
$20,755 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,138 Vol.
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,701 Vol.
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,267 Vol.
2%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and supporting agency data have aligned closely with the 1.38–1.41 °C range relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, driving the near-certain market-implied odds. Persistent greenhouse-gas forcing combined with developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific produced elevated sea-surface temperatures and land anomalies consistent with this narrow band, matching the upper end of multi-model ensemble means for the month. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño years and the 1991–2020 reference period further reinforced trader positioning. A late revision in official monthly aggregates, divergence between surface and satellite datasets, or an unexpected shift in the final pre-industrial adjustment could still alter resolution, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the stability of current observations.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$20,755Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and supporting agency data have aligned closely with the 1.38–1.41 °C range relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, driving the near-certain market-implied odds. Persistent greenhouse-gas forcing combined with developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific produced elevated sea-surface temperatures and land anomalies consistent with this narrow band, matching the upper end of multi-model ensemble means for the month. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño years and the 1991–2020 reference period further reinforced trader positioning. A late revision in official monthly aggregates, divergence between surface and satellite datasets, or an unexpected shift in the final pre-industrial adjustment could still alter resolution, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the stability of current observations.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20,755Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and supporting agency data have aligned closely with the 1.38–1.41 °C range relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, driving the near-certain market-implied odds. Persistent greenhouse-gas forcing combined with developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific produced elevated sea-surface temperatures and land anomalies consistent with this narrow band, matching the upper end of multi-model ensemble means for the month. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño years and the 1991–2020 reference period further reinforced trader positioning. A late revision in official monthly aggregates, divergence between surface and satellite datasets, or an unexpected shift in the final pre-industrial adjustment could still alter resolution, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the stability of current observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions