Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 9th congressional district due to its strong Republican lean, reflected in voter registration advantages exceeding 2-to-1 and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasting outlets. Gosar advanced unopposed through the July 21, 2026, Republican primary and maintains substantial campaign finance strength, with over $300,000 cash on hand compared to Democrat Dani Sterbinsky’s roughly $26,000. A recent NRA endorsement further bolsters his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Sterbinsky, who also ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, faces structural barriers in a district Gosar carried with 65 percent in 2024. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major health developments affecting the incumbent or unusually high Democratic turnout, though current indicators point to limited competitiveness.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAZ-09 House Election Winner
AZ-09 House Election Winner
$26,327 Vol.
$26,327 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Paul Gosar (R)
95%
Dani Sterbinsky (D)
4%
$26,327 Vol.
$26,327 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Paul Gosar (R)
$10,243 Vol.
95%
Dani Sterbinsky (D)
$16,084 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 9th congressional district due to its strong Republican lean, reflected in voter registration advantages exceeding 2-to-1 and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasting outlets. Gosar advanced unopposed through the July 21, 2026, Republican primary and maintains substantial campaign finance strength, with over $300,000 cash on hand compared to Democrat Dani Sterbinsky’s roughly $26,000. A recent NRA endorsement further bolsters his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Sterbinsky, who also ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, faces structural barriers in a district Gosar carried with 65 percent in 2024. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major health developments affecting the incumbent or unusually high Democratic turnout, though current indicators point to limited competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$26,327Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 9th congressional district due to its strong Republican lean, reflected in voter registration advantages exceeding 2-to-1 and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasting outlets. Gosar advanced unopposed through the July 21, 2026, Republican primary and maintains substantial campaign finance strength, with over $300,000 cash on hand compared to Democrat Dani Sterbinsky’s roughly $26,000. A recent NRA endorsement further bolsters his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Sterbinsky, who also ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, faces structural barriers in a district Gosar carried with 65 percent in 2024. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major health developments affecting the incumbent or unusually high Democratic turnout, though current indicators point to limited competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,327Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 9th congressional district due to its strong Republican lean, reflected in voter registration advantages exceeding 2-to-1 and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasting outlets. Gosar advanced unopposed through the July 21, 2026, Republican primary and maintains substantial campaign finance strength, with over $300,000 cash on hand compared to Democrat Dani Sterbinsky’s roughly $26,000. A recent NRA endorsement further bolsters his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Sterbinsky, who also ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, faces structural barriers in a district Gosar carried with 65 percent in 2024. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major health developments affecting the incumbent or unusually high Democratic turnout, though current indicators point to limited competitiveness.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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