Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District since March 2026, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 gubernatorial race, reflected in the 83% market price. Recent Datafolha polling from mid-September shows her at 40% in the first-round scenario, ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 16%. Her position strengthened after Arruda’s candidacy faced a unanimous TRE-DF ruling declaring him ineligible over prior convictions tied to the Caixa de Pandora scandal, with an appeal pending at the TSE. Polls without Arruda on the ballot show Leão rising to 45–46%, boosting prospects of a first-round victory. Grass and lower-polling names such as Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and Kiko Caputo remain distant, while party alignments including PP, Republicanos, and MDB support consolidate Leão’s frontrunner status ahead of the October vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCelina Leão 85%
Arruda 8.5%
Leandro Grass 4.2%
Elisson <1%
$17,033 Vol.
$17,033 Vol.
4 out 2026
Celina Leão
85%
Arruda
9%
Leandro Grass
4%
Elisson
1%
Paula Belmonte
<1%
Professor Robson
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
<1%
Kiko Caputo
<1%
Cappelli
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
<1%
Celina Leão 85%
Arruda 8.5%
Leandro Grass 4.2%
Elisson <1%
$17,033 Vol.
$17,033 Vol.
4 out 2026
Celina Leão
$9,785 Vol.
85%
Arruda
$1,936 Vol.
9%
Leandro Grass
$1,643 Vol.
4%
Elisson
$546 Vol.
1%
Paula Belmonte
$534 Vol.
<1%
Professor Robson
$533 Vol.
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
$544 Vol.
<1%
Kiko Caputo
$493 Vol.
<1%
Cappelli
$531 Vol.
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
$490 Vol.
<1%
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District since March 2026, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 gubernatorial race, reflected in the 83% market price. Recent Datafolha polling from mid-September shows her at 40% in the first-round scenario, ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 16%. Her position strengthened after Arruda’s candidacy faced a unanimous TRE-DF ruling declaring him ineligible over prior convictions tied to the Caixa de Pandora scandal, with an appeal pending at the TSE. Polls without Arruda on the ballot show Leão rising to 45–46%, boosting prospects of a first-round victory. Grass and lower-polling names such as Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and Kiko Caputo remain distant, while party alignments including PP, Republicanos, and MDB support consolidate Leão’s frontrunner status ahead of the October vote.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
Volume
$17,033Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District since March 2026, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 gubernatorial race, reflected in the 83% market price. Recent Datafolha polling from mid-September shows her at 40% in the first-round scenario, ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 16%. Her position strengthened after Arruda’s candidacy faced a unanimous TRE-DF ruling declaring him ineligible over prior convictions tied to the Caixa de Pandora scandal, with an appeal pending at the TSE. Polls without Arruda on the ballot show Leão rising to 45–46%, boosting prospects of a first-round victory. Grass and lower-polling names such as Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and Kiko Caputo remain distant, while party alignments including PP, Republicanos, and MDB support consolidate Leão’s frontrunner status ahead of the October vote.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,033Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District since March 2026, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 gubernatorial race, reflected in the 83% market price. Recent Datafolha polling from mid-September shows her at 40% in the first-round scenario, ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 16%. Her position strengthened after Arruda’s candidacy faced a unanimous TRE-DF ruling declaring him ineligible over prior convictions tied to the Caixa de Pandora scandal, with an appeal pending at the TSE. Polls without Arruda on the ballot show Leão rising to 45–46%, boosting prospects of a first-round victory. Grass and lower-polling names such as Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and Kiko Caputo remain distant, while party alignments including PP, Republicanos, and MDB support consolidate Leão’s frontrunner status ahead of the October vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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