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icon for Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?

icon for Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?

$19,255 Vol.

30 dez 2026
Polymarket

$19,255 Vol.

Polymarket

Abaixo de 4,50%

$1,088 Vol.

41%

Abaixo de 4,45%

$2,019 Vol.

43%

Abaixo de 4,40%

$1,430 Vol.

38%

Abaixo de 4,35%

$2,824 Vol.

36%

Abaixo de 4,30%

$1,527 Vol.

40%

Abaixo de 4,25%

$522 Vol.

35%

Abaixo de 4,20%

$1,550 Vol.

21%

Abaixo de 4,10%

$6,694 Vol.

12%

Abaixo de 4,00%

$1,600 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield stands near 4.78-4.80% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from roughly 3.6% a year earlier amid a hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh. Elevated core inflation near 3%, resilient growth, rising term premiums, and heavy Treasury supply tied to fiscal deficits have driven the repricing, with futures markets assigning odds to further policy tightening rather than cuts. Recent oil-price relief and profit-taking have produced modest daily declines, yet the broader trajectory points to limited downside before year-end 2026. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications that will shape expectations for the Fed funds path through 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$19,255
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield stands near 4.78-4.80% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from roughly 3.6% a year earlier amid a hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh. Elevated core inflation near 3%, resilient growth, rising term premiums, and heavy Treasury supply tied to fiscal deficits have driven the repricing, with futures markets assigning odds to further policy tightening rather than cuts. Recent oil-price relief and profit-taking have produced modest daily declines, yet the broader trajectory points to limited downside before year-end 2026. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications that will shape expectations for the Fed funds path through 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$19,255
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abaixo de 4,45%" at 43%, followed by "Abaixo de 4,50%" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" has generated $19.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" is "Abaixo de 4,45%" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Abaixo de 4,50%" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.