Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes have severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping most of the roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium under rubble in sealed tunnels and halting verifiable activities. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to these facilities since mid-2025, preventing confirmation of stockpile status or any resumption of enrichment or weaponization work. Satellite imagery shows no preparations for an explosive test, while a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum emphasizes maintaining the nuclear status quo amid ongoing diplomatic talks. Internal Iranian debate on nuclear options has surfaced following leadership changes, yet no formal policy shift or breakout decision has occurred. Traders assign only a 4.5% chance to a test by year-end because rebuilding sufficient capacity for a detectable detonation would require months of detectable activity and risk renewed escalation. Late diplomatic breakdowns or undetected recovery of fissile material remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
5% chance
$251,652 Vol.
$251,652 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
5% chance
$251,652 Vol.
$251,652 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes have severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping most of the roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium under rubble in sealed tunnels and halting verifiable activities. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to these facilities since mid-2025, preventing confirmation of stockpile status or any resumption of enrichment or weaponization work. Satellite imagery shows no preparations for an explosive test, while a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum emphasizes maintaining the nuclear status quo amid ongoing diplomatic talks. Internal Iranian debate on nuclear options has surfaced following leadership changes, yet no formal policy shift or breakout decision has occurred. Traders assign only a 4.5% chance to a test by year-end because rebuilding sufficient capacity for a detectable detonation would require months of detectable activity and risk renewed escalation. Late diplomatic breakdowns or undetected recovery of fissile material remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$251,652Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes have severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping most of the roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium under rubble in sealed tunnels and halting verifiable activities. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to these facilities since mid-2025, preventing confirmation of stockpile status or any resumption of enrichment or weaponization work. Satellite imagery shows no preparations for an explosive test, while a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum emphasizes maintaining the nuclear status quo amid ongoing diplomatic talks. Internal Iranian debate on nuclear options has surfaced following leadership changes, yet no formal policy shift or breakout decision has occurred. Traders assign only a 4.5% chance to a test by year-end because rebuilding sufficient capacity for a detectable detonation would require months of detectable activity and risk renewed escalation. Late diplomatic breakdowns or undetected recovery of fissile material remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251,652Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes have severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping most of the roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium under rubble in sealed tunnels and halting verifiable activities. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to these facilities since mid-2025, preventing confirmation of stockpile status or any resumption of enrichment or weaponization work. Satellite imagery shows no preparations for an explosive test, while a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum emphasizes maintaining the nuclear status quo amid ongoing diplomatic talks. Internal Iranian debate on nuclear options has surfaced following leadership changes, yet no formal policy shift or breakout decision has occurred. Traders assign only a 4.5% chance to a test by year-end because rebuilding sufficient capacity for a detectable detonation would require months of detectable activity and risk renewed escalation. Late diplomatic breakdowns or undetected recovery of fissile material remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions