US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment and burying or rendering inaccessible much of its ~440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. IAEA verification has been suspended at affected sites, and US intelligence assessments place Iran's breakout timeline for sufficient weapons-grade material at roughly nine to twelve months. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding reinforced commitments against nuclear weapons development and outlined IAEA-supervised downblending, contributing to the current trader consensus reflected in the 95% probability for "No." While peripheral regime voices have normalized weaponization rhetoric and limited reconstruction appears underway at some sites, no verified crash program or decision to assemble a device has emerged. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include undetected recovery of fissile material at undeclared locations or rapid diplomatic breakdown enabling accelerated enrichment before year-end.