Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate general election features incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization efforts. Oregon's all-mail voting system typically supports baseline participation near 60 percent of registered voters in midterms, consistent with the market's concentration of probability in the 1.5M–1.8M range. Record May primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, driven by a gas tax ballot measure and competitive gubernatorial primary, provides some upward pressure, yet the low-salience Senate contest and absence of tight polling data leave room for variance tied to national conditions, down-ballot enthusiasm, and weather. Traders price modest separation among nearby buckets because these variables remain fluid two months out.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEleição para o Senado do Oregon: comparecimento às urnas
Eleição para o Senado do Oregon: comparecimento às urnas
2M-2,1M 29%
1,5M-1,6M 17.6%
1,7M-1,8M 14%
2,1M-2,2M 14%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
<1,5M
35%
1,5M-1,6M
18%
1,6M-1,7M
6%
1,7M-1,8M
15%
1,8M-1,9M
9%
1,9M-2M
8%
2M-2,1M
15%
2,1M-2,2M
14%
2,2M+
7%
2M-2,1M 29%
1,5M-1,6M 17.6%
1,7M-1,8M 14%
2,1M-2,2M 14%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
<1,5M
$153 Vol.
35%
1,5M-1,6M
$102 Vol.
18%
1,6M-1,7M
$70 Vol.
6%
1,7M-1,8M
$138 Vol.
15%
1,8M-1,9M
$57 Vol.
9%
1,9M-2M
$60 Vol.
8%
2M-2,1M
$165 Vol.
15%
2,1M-2,2M
$53 Vol.
14%
2,2M+
$81 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate general election features incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization efforts. Oregon's all-mail voting system typically supports baseline participation near 60 percent of registered voters in midterms, consistent with the market's concentration of probability in the 1.5M–1.8M range. Record May primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, driven by a gas tax ballot measure and competitive gubernatorial primary, provides some upward pressure, yet the low-salience Senate contest and absence of tight polling data leave room for variance tied to national conditions, down-ballot enthusiasm, and weather. Traders price modest separation among nearby buckets because these variables remain fluid two months out.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Volume
$879Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate general election features incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization efforts. Oregon's all-mail voting system typically supports baseline participation near 60 percent of registered voters in midterms, consistent with the market's concentration of probability in the 1.5M–1.8M range. Record May primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, driven by a gas tax ballot measure and competitive gubernatorial primary, provides some upward pressure, yet the low-salience Senate contest and absence of tight polling data leave room for variance tied to national conditions, down-ballot enthusiasm, and weather. Traders price modest separation among nearby buckets because these variables remain fluid two months out.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$879Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate general election features incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization efforts. Oregon's all-mail voting system typically supports baseline participation near 60 percent of registered voters in midterms, consistent with the market's concentration of probability in the 1.5M–1.8M range. Record May primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, driven by a gas tax ballot measure and competitive gubernatorial primary, provides some upward pressure, yet the low-salience Senate contest and absence of tight polling data leave room for variance tied to national conditions, down-ballot enthusiasm, and weather. Traders price modest separation among nearby buckets because these variables remain fluid two months out.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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