Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 80% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his strong polling lead as the top preference in multiple September 2026 surveys. Recent data from institutes such as Veritá, Doxa, AtlasIntel, and Real Time show him capturing 25-45% as the first vote choice, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at roughly 14-26% and trailing names like Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) and Chicão (União) in the low-to-mid teens. Barbalho's position stems from high name recognition after two terms as governor, a broad coalition spanning MDB, PSD, PT, and others, and his resignation from the state executive in April to focus on the Senate bid. Éder Mauro has consolidated as the clearest challenger through PL support and security-focused messaging, yet remains well behind in first-preference metrics. The October election timing leaves room for shifts in second-vote consolidation and turnout patterns among the state's 6.2 million voters.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHelder 80%
Delegado Éder Mauro 13.9%
Zequinha Marinho 3.4%
Edlaine Rodrigues 3.0%
$18,727 Vol.
$18,727 Vol.
4 out 2026
Helder
80%
Delegado Éder Mauro
14%
Zequinha Marinho
3%
Edlaine Rodrigues
3%
Fernanda Lopes
1%
Celso Sabino
1%
Breno Guimarães
1%
Conti
1%
Gizelle Freitas
<1%
Chicão
<1%
Willem da Silva
<1%
Helder 80%
Delegado Éder Mauro 13.9%
Zequinha Marinho 3.4%
Edlaine Rodrigues 3.0%
$18,727 Vol.
$18,727 Vol.
4 out 2026
Helder
$12,931 Vol.
80%
Delegado Éder Mauro
$645 Vol.
14%
Zequinha Marinho
$594 Vol.
3%
Edlaine Rodrigues
$624 Vol.
3%
Fernanda Lopes
$746 Vol.
1%
Celso Sabino
$519 Vol.
1%
Breno Guimarães
$553 Vol.
1%
Conti
$571 Vol.
1%
Gizelle Freitas
$582 Vol.
<1%
Chicão
$508 Vol.
<1%
Willem da Silva
$456 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 80% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his strong polling lead as the top preference in multiple September 2026 surveys. Recent data from institutes such as Veritá, Doxa, AtlasIntel, and Real Time show him capturing 25-45% as the first vote choice, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at roughly 14-26% and trailing names like Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) and Chicão (União) in the low-to-mid teens. Barbalho's position stems from high name recognition after two terms as governor, a broad coalition spanning MDB, PSD, PT, and others, and his resignation from the state executive in April to focus on the Senate bid. Éder Mauro has consolidated as the clearest challenger through PL support and security-focused messaging, yet remains well behind in first-preference metrics. The October election timing leaves room for shifts in second-vote consolidation and turnout patterns among the state's 6.2 million voters.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$18,727Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 80% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his strong polling lead as the top preference in multiple September 2026 surveys. Recent data from institutes such as Veritá, Doxa, AtlasIntel, and Real Time show him capturing 25-45% as the first vote choice, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at roughly 14-26% and trailing names like Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) and Chicão (União) in the low-to-mid teens. Barbalho's position stems from high name recognition after two terms as governor, a broad coalition spanning MDB, PSD, PT, and others, and his resignation from the state executive in April to focus on the Senate bid. Éder Mauro has consolidated as the clearest challenger through PL support and security-focused messaging, yet remains well behind in first-preference metrics. The October election timing leaves room for shifts in second-vote consolidation and turnout patterns among the state's 6.2 million voters.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$18,727Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 80% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his strong polling lead as the top preference in multiple September 2026 surveys. Recent data from institutes such as Veritá, Doxa, AtlasIntel, and Real Time show him capturing 25-45% as the first vote choice, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at roughly 14-26% and trailing names like Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) and Chicão (União) in the low-to-mid teens. Barbalho's position stems from high name recognition after two terms as governor, a broad coalition spanning MDB, PSD, PT, and others, and his resignation from the state executive in April to focus on the Senate bid. Éder Mauro has consolidated as the clearest challenger through PL support and security-focused messaging, yet remains well behind in first-preference metrics. The October election timing leaves room for shifts in second-vote consolidation and turnout patterns among the state's 6.2 million voters.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions