A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures already reaching +1.8°C to +2.5°C and forecasts pointing to a very strong peak exceeding +2°C or even +3°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global temperature anomaly expectations. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, WMO, and ECMWF project widespread above-normal surface temperatures, amplified by record ocean heat content and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, on top of the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Trader consensus across the closely matched bins around 1.30–1.49°C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty from model spread, internal variability, and the precise lag between Pacific SSTs and peak global response; upcoming September model runs and early observational data will likely sharpen resolution criteria tied to pre-industrial baselines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSetembro de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Setembro de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
NOVO
NOVO
9 out 2026
<1,30ºC
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
50%
>1,49ºC
50%
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
NOVO
NOVO
9 out 2026
<1,30ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures already reaching +1.8°C to +2.5°C and forecasts pointing to a very strong peak exceeding +2°C or even +3°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global temperature anomaly expectations. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, WMO, and ECMWF project widespread above-normal surface temperatures, amplified by record ocean heat content and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, on top of the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Trader consensus across the closely matched bins around 1.30–1.49°C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty from model spread, internal variability, and the precise lag between Pacific SSTs and peak global response; upcoming September model runs and early observational data will likely sharpen resolution criteria tied to pre-industrial baselines.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
10 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures already reaching +1.8°C to +2.5°C and forecasts pointing to a very strong peak exceeding +2°C or even +3°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global temperature anomaly expectations. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, WMO, and ECMWF project widespread above-normal surface temperatures, amplified by record ocean heat content and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, on top of the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Trader consensus across the closely matched bins around 1.30–1.49°C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty from model spread, internal variability, and the precise lag between Pacific SSTs and peak global response; upcoming September model runs and early observational data will likely sharpen resolution criteria tied to pre-industrial baselines.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0Data de Término
10 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures already reaching +1.8°C to +2.5°C and forecasts pointing to a very strong peak exceeding +2°C or even +3°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global temperature anomaly expectations. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, WMO, and ECMWF project widespread above-normal surface temperatures, amplified by record ocean heat content and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, on top of the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Trader consensus across the closely matched bins around 1.30–1.49°C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty from model spread, internal variability, and the precise lag between Pacific SSTs and peak global response; upcoming September model runs and early observational data will likely sharpen resolution criteria tied to pre-industrial baselines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions