Traders assign a 95.5% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by October 31 due to the absence of active negotiations since trilateral talks in early 2026 stalled amid unresolved disputes over territory in Donetsk and postwar security guarantees. Formal diplomatic efforts halted after the February escalation involving Iran, with subsequent U.S. statements describing prior mediation as unsuccessful and no resumption reported through August. Ongoing military operations, including Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukrainian long-range attacks, reflect continued battlefield momentum rather than conditions conducive to rapid agreement. A deal within the narrow remaining window would require breakthroughs on core issues where positions remain far apart, a development unsupported by recent diplomatic or military trends. Unforeseen shifts such as renewed high-level U.S. engagement or major battlefield reversals could still alter timelines, though such catalysts lack supporting signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
5% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 out 2026
Sim
5% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 out 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 95.5% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by October 31 due to the absence of active negotiations since trilateral talks in early 2026 stalled amid unresolved disputes over territory in Donetsk and postwar security guarantees. Formal diplomatic efforts halted after the February escalation involving Iran, with subsequent U.S. statements describing prior mediation as unsuccessful and no resumption reported through August. Ongoing military operations, including Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukrainian long-range attacks, reflect continued battlefield momentum rather than conditions conducive to rapid agreement. A deal within the narrow remaining window would require breakthroughs on core issues where positions remain far apart, a development unsupported by recent diplomatic or military trends. Unforeseen shifts such as renewed high-level U.S. engagement or major battlefield reversals could still alter timelines, though such catalysts lack supporting signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$712Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 95.5% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by October 31 due to the absence of active negotiations since trilateral talks in early 2026 stalled amid unresolved disputes over territory in Donetsk and postwar security guarantees. Formal diplomatic efforts halted after the February escalation involving Iran, with subsequent U.S. statements describing prior mediation as unsuccessful and no resumption reported through August. Ongoing military operations, including Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukrainian long-range attacks, reflect continued battlefield momentum rather than conditions conducive to rapid agreement. A deal within the narrow remaining window would require breakthroughs on core issues where positions remain far apart, a development unsupported by recent diplomatic or military trends. Unforeseen shifts such as renewed high-level U.S. engagement or major battlefield reversals could still alter timelines, though such catalysts lack supporting signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$712Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.5% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by October 31 due to the absence of active negotiations since trilateral talks in early 2026 stalled amid unresolved disputes over territory in Donetsk and postwar security guarantees. Formal diplomatic efforts halted after the February escalation involving Iran, with subsequent U.S. statements describing prior mediation as unsuccessful and no resumption reported through August. Ongoing military operations, including Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukrainian long-range attacks, reflect continued battlefield momentum rather than conditions conducive to rapid agreement. A deal within the narrow remaining window would require breakthroughs on core issues where positions remain far apart, a development unsupported by recent diplomatic or military trends. Unforeseen shifts such as renewed high-level U.S. engagement or major battlefield reversals could still alter timelines, though such catalysts lack supporting signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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