Iranian lawmakers submitted formal proposals in August 2026 to exit the NPT following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, citing violations of commitments and loss of benefits under the treaty. However, these measures remain under parliamentary review with no executive endorsement or legislative passage to date, while Tehran continues operating without full IAEA access after suspending cooperation in 2025. Analysts note that withdrawal under Article X would require three months’ notice and a supreme national interest declaration, risks sharply escalating sanctions or military responses, and has been floated repeatedly as leverage rather than pursued as policy. Government statements continue to affirm no pursuit of nuclear weapons, and internal divisions persist over the strategic costs of formal exit versus maintaining threshold status. These dynamics support trader consensus that withdrawal before 2027 remains unlikely.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?
O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?
Sim
12% chance
$406,063 Vol.
$406,063 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
12% chance
$406,063 Vol.
$406,063 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers submitted formal proposals in August 2026 to exit the NPT following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, citing violations of commitments and loss of benefits under the treaty. However, these measures remain under parliamentary review with no executive endorsement or legislative passage to date, while Tehran continues operating without full IAEA access after suspending cooperation in 2025. Analysts note that withdrawal under Article X would require three months’ notice and a supreme national interest declaration, risks sharply escalating sanctions or military responses, and has been floated repeatedly as leverage rather than pursued as policy. Government statements continue to affirm no pursuit of nuclear weapons, and internal divisions persist over the strategic costs of formal exit versus maintaining threshold status. These dynamics support trader consensus that withdrawal before 2027 remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$406,063Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers submitted formal proposals in August 2026 to exit the NPT following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, citing violations of commitments and loss of benefits under the treaty. However, these measures remain under parliamentary review with no executive endorsement or legislative passage to date, while Tehran continues operating without full IAEA access after suspending cooperation in 2025. Analysts note that withdrawal under Article X would require three months’ notice and a supreme national interest declaration, risks sharply escalating sanctions or military responses, and has been floated repeatedly as leverage rather than pursued as policy. Government statements continue to affirm no pursuit of nuclear weapons, and internal divisions persist over the strategic costs of formal exit versus maintaining threshold status. These dynamics support trader consensus that withdrawal before 2027 remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$406,063Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian lawmakers submitted formal proposals in August 2026 to exit the NPT following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, citing violations of commitments and loss of benefits under the treaty. However, these measures remain under parliamentary review with no executive endorsement or legislative passage to date, while Tehran continues operating without full IAEA access after suspending cooperation in 2025. Analysts note that withdrawal under Article X would require three months’ notice and a supreme national interest declaration, risks sharply escalating sanctions or military responses, and has been floated repeatedly as leverage rather than pursued as policy. Government statements continue to affirm no pursuit of nuclear weapons, and internal divisions persist over the strategic costs of formal exit versus maintaining threshold status. These dynamics support trader consensus that withdrawal before 2027 remains unlikely.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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