Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and limited unsupervised autonomous service launches in 2026, without any public Robovan timelines or pre-order mechanisms, drives the 90.5% market-implied probability of no orders before 2027. The 20-passenger autonomous electric van unveiled in 2024 remains a concept prototype amid regulatory hurdles for driverless vehicles, manufacturing capacity constraints at Gigafactory Texas, and focus on Cybercab volume ramps plus related autonomy software validation. Traders see realistic upside risks from accelerated Full Self-Driving milestones or an unexpected executive pivot, but absent credible reporting on order windows or distinct product-line commitments by year-end 2026, the consensus holds firm.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Tesla abrirá pedidos para o Robovan antes de 2027?
A Tesla abrirá pedidos para o Robovan antes de 2027?
Sim
10% chance
$32,145 Vol.
$32,145 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
10% chance
$32,145 Vol.
$32,145 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and limited unsupervised autonomous service launches in 2026, without any public Robovan timelines or pre-order mechanisms, drives the 90.5% market-implied probability of no orders before 2027. The 20-passenger autonomous electric van unveiled in 2024 remains a concept prototype amid regulatory hurdles for driverless vehicles, manufacturing capacity constraints at Gigafactory Texas, and focus on Cybercab volume ramps plus related autonomy software validation. Traders see realistic upside risks from accelerated Full Self-Driving milestones or an unexpected executive pivot, but absent credible reporting on order windows or distinct product-line commitments by year-end 2026, the consensus holds firm.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$32,145Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and limited unsupervised autonomous service launches in 2026, without any public Robovan timelines or pre-order mechanisms, drives the 90.5% market-implied probability of no orders before 2027. The 20-passenger autonomous electric van unveiled in 2024 remains a concept prototype amid regulatory hurdles for driverless vehicles, manufacturing capacity constraints at Gigafactory Texas, and focus on Cybercab volume ramps plus related autonomy software validation. Traders see realistic upside risks from accelerated Full Self-Driving milestones or an unexpected executive pivot, but absent credible reporting on order windows or distinct product-line commitments by year-end 2026, the consensus holds firm.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$32,145Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and limited unsupervised autonomous service launches in 2026, without any public Robovan timelines or pre-order mechanisms, drives the 90.5% market-implied probability of no orders before 2027. The 20-passenger autonomous electric van unveiled in 2024 remains a concept prototype amid regulatory hurdles for driverless vehicles, manufacturing capacity constraints at Gigafactory Texas, and focus on Cybercab volume ramps plus related autonomy software validation. Traders see realistic upside risks from accelerated Full Self-Driving milestones or an unexpected executive pivot, but absent credible reporting on order windows or distinct product-line commitments by year-end 2026, the consensus holds firm.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions