Democratic control of the House after the November 2026 midterms stands as the central driver behind the 68.5% trader-implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before the end of the term. Prediction markets currently price Democrats as strong favorites to regain the chamber, giving them roughly two years to advance proceedings once in the majority. Recent efforts, including Rep. Al Green’s September 2026 resolution citing immigration enforcement actions, were tabled in the Republican-controlled House with support from some Democrats who cited the need for fuller investigations. Polling has shown majority public belief in grounds for impeachment, while Democratic leaders have left the option open without committing to immediate action. Traders appear to weigh these institutional and electoral factors more heavily than short-term procedural setbacks.