Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign before 2027, reflecting the absence of confirmed triggers such as successful impeachment proceedings, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or public signals of intent from the president or his administration. Recent developments, including ongoing Iran-related tensions and health-related speculation around leg swelling or cognitive fitness, have prompted partisan forecasts of an early exit but have not produced verifiable evidence of impending departure. Trump has continued public appearances and discussions projecting service through at least the 2026 midterms and into later years, consistent with historical patterns where sitting presidents rarely resign absent acute, unsustainable pressure. Markets price low odds of resignation even after potential midterm shifts, as sustained congressional support and the president's record of defying calls to step aside limit near-term pathways. Scenarios that could still alter this consensus include a sharp deterioration in health confirmed by official medical updates, decisive electoral losses prompting internal party pressure, or unforeseen legal or diplomatic crises.