**Russia's Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the federal party-list ballot in August 2026 after a lawsuit by the Rodina party, directly preventing the liberal opposition group from appearing on the nationwide proportional representation vote for the September 18–20 State Duma elections.** This procedural exclusion, following earlier administrative hurdles and candidate disqualifications, accounts for the overwhelming trader consensus on the "No" outcome. Yabloko has not cleared the 5% threshold in any national election since 1999, consistently polling in the low single digits under conditions of restricted media access and documented electoral controls favoring established parties. Independent surveys occasionally showed modest urban pockets of support, yet state-aligned polling placed it well below viability, and its removal from the ballot renders threshold clearance impossible under the market's resolution rules. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the result remain limited to an improbable successful late appeal or reinterpretation of ballot rules, both of which face tight timelines and institutional barriers ahead of voting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
<1% chance
$717,061 Vol.
$717,061 Vol.
20 set 2026
Sim
<1% chance
$717,061 Vol.
$717,061 Vol.
20 set 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**Russia's Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the federal party-list ballot in August 2026 after a lawsuit by the Rodina party, directly preventing the liberal opposition group from appearing on the nationwide proportional representation vote for the September 18–20 State Duma elections.**
This procedural exclusion, following earlier administrative hurdles and candidate disqualifications, accounts for the overwhelming trader consensus on the "No" outcome. Yabloko has not cleared the 5% threshold in any national election since 1999, consistently polling in the low single digits under conditions of restricted media access and documented electoral controls favoring established parties. Independent surveys occasionally showed modest urban pockets of support, yet state-aligned polling placed it well below viability, and its removal from the ballot renders threshold clearance impossible under the market's resolution rules.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the result remain limited to an improbable successful late appeal or reinterpretation of ballot rules, both of which face tight timelines and institutional barriers ahead of voting.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Volume
$717,061Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**Russia's Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the federal party-list ballot in August 2026 after a lawsuit by the Rodina party, directly preventing the liberal opposition group from appearing on the nationwide proportional representation vote for the September 18–20 State Duma elections.**
This procedural exclusion, following earlier administrative hurdles and candidate disqualifications, accounts for the overwhelming trader consensus on the "No" outcome. Yabloko has not cleared the 5% threshold in any national election since 1999, consistently polling in the low single digits under conditions of restricted media access and documented electoral controls favoring established parties. Independent surveys occasionally showed modest urban pockets of support, yet state-aligned polling placed it well below viability, and its removal from the ballot renders threshold clearance impossible under the market's resolution rules.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the result remain limited to an improbable successful late appeal or reinterpretation of ballot rules, both of which face tight timelines and institutional barriers ahead of voting.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$717,061Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Russia's Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the federal party-list ballot in August 2026 after a lawsuit by the Rodina party, directly preventing the liberal opposition group from appearing on the nationwide proportional representation vote for the September 18–20 State Duma elections.** This procedural exclusion, following earlier administrative hurdles and candidate disqualifications, accounts for the overwhelming trader consensus on the "No" outcome. Yabloko has not cleared the 5% threshold in any national election since 1999, consistently polling in the low single digits under conditions of restricted media access and documented electoral controls favoring established parties. Independent surveys occasionally showed modest urban pockets of support, yet state-aligned polling placed it well below viability, and its removal from the ballot renders threshold clearance impossible under the market's resolution rules. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the result remain limited to an improbable successful late appeal or reinterpretation of ballot rules, both of which face tight timelines and institutional barriers ahead of voting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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