Incumbent Bruce Westerman holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 4th congressional district due to its R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and his established record since 2015. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Westerman’s substantial fundraising lead and unopposed primary further reinforce trader consensus around a wide victory margin. James Russell, the Democratic nominee who prevailed in a March primary, faces structural headwinds in the rural, conservative district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include unforeseen late developments such as health issues, major scandals, or significant national political shifts within the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAR-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
AR-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$23,907 Объем
$23,907 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Брюс Вестерман (Р)
94%
Джеймс Рассел (Д)
5%
$23,907 Объем
$23,907 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Брюс Вестерман (Р)
$12,557 Объем
94%
Джеймс Рассел (Д)
$11,350 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Bruce Westerman holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 4th congressional district due to its R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and his established record since 2015. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Westerman’s substantial fundraising lead and unopposed primary further reinforce trader consensus around a wide victory margin. James Russell, the Democratic nominee who prevailed in a March primary, faces structural headwinds in the rural, conservative district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include unforeseen late developments such as health issues, major scandals, or significant national political shifts within the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$23,907Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Bruce Westerman holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 4th congressional district due to its R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and his established record since 2015. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Westerman’s substantial fundraising lead and unopposed primary further reinforce trader consensus around a wide victory margin. James Russell, the Democratic nominee who prevailed in a March primary, faces structural headwinds in the rural, conservative district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include unforeseen late developments such as health issues, major scandals, or significant national political shifts within the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$23,907Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Bruce Westerman holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 4th congressional district due to its R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and his established record since 2015. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Westerman’s substantial fundraising lead and unopposed primary further reinforce trader consensus around a wide victory margin. James Russell, the Democratic nominee who prevailed in a March primary, faces structural headwinds in the rural, conservative district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include unforeseen late developments such as health issues, major scandals, or significant national political shifts within the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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