Russia’s Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the nationwide proportional-representation ballot in August 2026 after a Rodina party suit, following administrative disqualifications of candidates and documented barriers that have kept the liberal party below the 5% Duma threshold in every election since 1999. With voting set for September 18–20 and no reversal in place, traders see no realistic path for the party list to appear and clear the threshold. Ongoing regional court actions have further stripped single-mandate and local candidates, reinforcing exclusion. The only plausible shifts would require an improbable last-minute appellate reversal or reinterpretation of ballot rules before polls close, both viewed as negligible given the timeline and institutional patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
<1% вероятность
$677,843 Объем
$677,843 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
Да
<1% вероятность
$677,843 Объем
$677,843 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia’s Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the nationwide proportional-representation ballot in August 2026 after a Rodina party suit, following administrative disqualifications of candidates and documented barriers that have kept the liberal party below the 5% Duma threshold in every election since 1999. With voting set for September 18–20 and no reversal in place, traders see no realistic path for the party list to appear and clear the threshold. Ongoing regional court actions have further stripped single-mandate and local candidates, reinforcing exclusion. The only plausible shifts would require an improbable last-minute appellate reversal or reinterpretation of ballot rules before polls close, both viewed as negligible given the timeline and institutional patterns.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Открытие рынка: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Объем
$677,843Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia’s Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the nationwide proportional-representation ballot in August 2026 after a Rodina party suit, following administrative disqualifications of candidates and documented barriers that have kept the liberal party below the 5% Duma threshold in every election since 1999. With voting set for September 18–20 and no reversal in place, traders see no realistic path for the party list to appear and clear the threshold. Ongoing regional court actions have further stripped single-mandate and local candidates, reinforcing exclusion. The only plausible shifts would require an improbable last-minute appellate reversal or reinterpretation of ballot rules before polls close, both viewed as negligible given the timeline and institutional patterns.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Объем
$677,843Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Russia’s Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the nationwide proportional-representation ballot in August 2026 after a Rodina party suit, following administrative disqualifications of candidates and documented barriers that have kept the liberal party below the 5% Duma threshold in every election since 1999. With voting set for September 18–20 and no reversal in place, traders see no realistic path for the party list to appear and clear the threshold. Ongoing regional court actions have further stripped single-mandate and local candidates, reinforcing exclusion. The only plausible shifts would require an improbable last-minute appellate reversal or reinterpretation of ballot rules before polls close, both viewed as negligible given the timeline and institutional patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Получит ли партия «Справедливая Россия — За правду» (СРЗП) хотя бы одно место на следующих выборах в Государственную Думу России?
93%
Да
Выборы в России: «Единая Россия» победила во всех регионах?
72%
Да
Получит ли «Единая Россия» (ЕР) наибольшее количество мест на следующих выборах в Государственную Думу?
80%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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