Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of power through extensive anti-corruption purges and loyalty enforcement in the People’s Liberation Army and senior party ranks underpins traders’ strong consensus against a coup attempt by year-end. Recent removals of top generals and officials, combined with new mechanisms for social governance and political oversight ahead of the 2027 party congress, reinforce centralized control and deter factional challenges. With only months remaining, the absence of credible reports of coordinated military or elite action sustains the elevated implied probability for no attempt. A sudden health crisis for Xi, a major policy reversal triggering elite fractures, or an unforeseen external shock could theoretically alter dynamics, though structural barriers like surveillance, patronage networks, and institutional dominance make such outcomes remote in the short window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
4% вероятность
$155,524 Объем
$155,524 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$155,524 Объем
$155,524 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of power through extensive anti-corruption purges and loyalty enforcement in the People’s Liberation Army and senior party ranks underpins traders’ strong consensus against a coup attempt by year-end. Recent removals of top generals and officials, combined with new mechanisms for social governance and political oversight ahead of the 2027 party congress, reinforce centralized control and deter factional challenges. With only months remaining, the absence of credible reports of coordinated military or elite action sustains the elevated implied probability for no attempt. A sudden health crisis for Xi, a major policy reversal triggering elite fractures, or an unforeseen external shock could theoretically alter dynamics, though structural barriers like surveillance, patronage networks, and institutional dominance make such outcomes remote in the short window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$155,524Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of power through extensive anti-corruption purges and loyalty enforcement in the People’s Liberation Army and senior party ranks underpins traders’ strong consensus against a coup attempt by year-end. Recent removals of top generals and officials, combined with new mechanisms for social governance and political oversight ahead of the 2027 party congress, reinforce centralized control and deter factional challenges. With only months remaining, the absence of credible reports of coordinated military or elite action sustains the elevated implied probability for no attempt. A sudden health crisis for Xi, a major policy reversal triggering elite fractures, or an unforeseen external shock could theoretically alter dynamics, though structural barriers like surveillance, patronage networks, and institutional dominance make such outcomes remote in the short window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$155,524Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of power through extensive anti-corruption purges and loyalty enforcement in the People’s Liberation Army and senior party ranks underpins traders’ strong consensus against a coup attempt by year-end. Recent removals of top generals and officials, combined with new mechanisms for social governance and political oversight ahead of the 2027 party congress, reinforce centralized control and deter factional challenges. With only months remaining, the absence of credible reports of coordinated military or elite action sustains the elevated implied probability for no attempt. A sudden health crisis for Xi, a major policy reversal triggering elite fractures, or an unforeseen external shock could theoretically alter dynamics, though structural barriers like surveillance, patronage networks, and institutional dominance make such outcomes remote in the short window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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