Israel’s airspace closures have occurred multiple times in 2026 amid direct exchanges of strikes with Iran and related regional threats, including missile and drone activity from Iran-linked groups. As of late August, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following prior reopenings after February-March and June escalations, though a fragile US-Iran truce has seen renewed military friction around the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli officials stated in July there are no current plans for closure despite US refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion and ongoing volatility, while EASA’s medium-risk Information Note for the region expires August 31. Airlines including Delta are scheduling limited resumptions in September, but trader assessments reflect the potential for short-notice restrictions tied to any fresh Iranian retaliation or proxy attacks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$27,587,855 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
31 августа
1%
30 сентября
9%
$27,587,855 Объем
31 августа
$1,505,258 Объем
1%
30 сентября
$50,716 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace closures have occurred multiple times in 2026 amid direct exchanges of strikes with Iran and related regional threats, including missile and drone activity from Iran-linked groups. As of late August, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following prior reopenings after February-March and June escalations, though a fragile US-Iran truce has seen renewed military friction around the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli officials stated in July there are no current plans for closure despite US refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion and ongoing volatility, while EASA’s medium-risk Information Note for the region expires August 31. Airlines including Delta are scheduling limited resumptions in September, but trader assessments reflect the potential for short-notice restrictions tied to any fresh Iranian retaliation or proxy attacks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Объем
$27,587,855Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace closures have occurred multiple times in 2026 amid direct exchanges of strikes with Iran and related regional threats, including missile and drone activity from Iran-linked groups. As of late August, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following prior reopenings after February-March and June escalations, though a fragile US-Iran truce has seen renewed military friction around the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli officials stated in July there are no current plans for closure despite US refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion and ongoing volatility, while EASA’s medium-risk Information Note for the region expires August 31. Airlines including Delta are scheduling limited resumptions in September, but trader assessments reflect the potential for short-notice restrictions tied to any fresh Iranian retaliation or proxy attacks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$27,587,855Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Israel’s airspace closures have occurred multiple times in 2026 amid direct exchanges of strikes with Iran and related regional threats, including missile and drone activity from Iran-linked groups. As of late August, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following prior reopenings after February-March and June escalations, though a fragile US-Iran truce has seen renewed military friction around the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli officials stated in July there are no current plans for closure despite US refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion and ongoing volatility, while EASA’s medium-risk Information Note for the region expires August 31. Airlines including Delta are scheduling limited resumptions in September, but trader assessments reflect the potential for short-notice restrictions tied to any fresh Iranian retaliation or proxy attacks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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