Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and the July 20 blockade declaration have kept Bab el-Mandeb daily transits fluctuating near 30–40 vessels, well below the pre-crisis ~60–70 baseline, with AIS data showing weekly volumes stabilizing around 223–269 crossings amid elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value. Partial recovery in Suez Canal traffic to four-week highs near 1,090 movements, driven by MSC, Maersk, and other carriers routing select Asia-Europe services back through the strait, supports trader consensus around the 25–34 range, while tanker-specific flows remain pressured by selective targeting and dark transits. The tight spread across leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether September volumes will hold near August levels or face further contraction if attacks escalate, with commodity flows and freight rates serving as key swing indicators.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСреднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце сентября?
Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце сентября?
30-34 26.0%
25-29 26%
<25 19.5%
35-39 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
<25
20%
25-29
26%
30-34
26%
35-39
18%
40+
10%
30-34 26.0%
25-29 26%
<25 19.5%
35-39 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
<25
$338 Объем
20%
25-29
$1,121 Объем
26%
30-34
$461 Объем
26%
35-39
$324 Объем
18%
40+
$164 Объем
10%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and the July 20 blockade declaration have kept Bab el-Mandeb daily transits fluctuating near 30–40 vessels, well below the pre-crisis ~60–70 baseline, with AIS data showing weekly volumes stabilizing around 223–269 crossings amid elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value. Partial recovery in Suez Canal traffic to four-week highs near 1,090 movements, driven by MSC, Maersk, and other carriers routing select Asia-Europe services back through the strait, supports trader consensus around the 25–34 range, while tanker-specific flows remain pressured by selective targeting and dark transits. The tight spread across leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether September volumes will hold near August levels or face further contraction if attacks escalate, with commodity flows and freight rates serving as key swing indicators.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Открытие рынка: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Объем
$2,408Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
IMF PortWatchКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and the July 20 blockade declaration have kept Bab el-Mandeb daily transits fluctuating near 30–40 vessels, well below the pre-crisis ~60–70 baseline, with AIS data showing weekly volumes stabilizing around 223–269 crossings amid elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value. Partial recovery in Suez Canal traffic to four-week highs near 1,090 movements, driven by MSC, Maersk, and other carriers routing select Asia-Europe services back through the strait, supports trader consensus around the 25–34 range, while tanker-specific flows remain pressured by selective targeting and dark transits. The tight spread across leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether September volumes will hold near August levels or face further contraction if attacks escalate, with commodity flows and freight rates serving as key swing indicators.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$2,408Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
IMF PortWatchКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and the July 20 blockade declaration have kept Bab el-Mandeb daily transits fluctuating near 30–40 vessels, well below the pre-crisis ~60–70 baseline, with AIS data showing weekly volumes stabilizing around 223–269 crossings amid elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value. Partial recovery in Suez Canal traffic to four-week highs near 1,090 movements, driven by MSC, Maersk, and other carriers routing select Asia-Europe services back through the strait, supports trader consensus around the 25–34 range, while tanker-specific flows remain pressured by selective targeting and dark transits. The tight spread across leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether September volumes will hold near August levels or face further contraction if attacks escalate, with commodity flows and freight rates serving as key swing indicators.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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