Paul Tonko’s strong position as the Democratic incumbent in New York’s 20th Congressional District stems from the seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Tonko’s 61 percent margin in 2024. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, and Tonko maintains a substantial fundraising edge. Ralph Ambrosio, the Republican nominee and a former state trooper and prosecutor, has raised limited funds and lacks broad name recognition in the Capital Region district covering Albany, Schenectady, and Saratoga Springs. Trader consensus pricing this outcome near 96 percent aligns with the district’s structural advantages and absence of recent developments that would alter the baseline outlook. Late developments such as a major scandal or an unusually strong national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though both remain low-probability scenarios at this stage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-20
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-20
$35,410 Объем
$35,410 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Пол Тонко (Д)
96%
Ральф Амброзио (Р)
3%
$35,410 Объем
$35,410 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Пол Тонко (Д)
$16,564 Объем
96%
Ральф Амброзио (Р)
$18,846 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Tonko’s strong position as the Democratic incumbent in New York’s 20th Congressional District stems from the seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Tonko’s 61 percent margin in 2024. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, and Tonko maintains a substantial fundraising edge. Ralph Ambrosio, the Republican nominee and a former state trooper and prosecutor, has raised limited funds and lacks broad name recognition in the Capital Region district covering Albany, Schenectady, and Saratoga Springs. Trader consensus pricing this outcome near 96 percent aligns with the district’s structural advantages and absence of recent developments that would alter the baseline outlook. Late developments such as a major scandal or an unusually strong national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though both remain low-probability scenarios at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$35,410Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Tonko’s strong position as the Democratic incumbent in New York’s 20th Congressional District stems from the seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Tonko’s 61 percent margin in 2024. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, and Tonko maintains a substantial fundraising edge. Ralph Ambrosio, the Republican nominee and a former state trooper and prosecutor, has raised limited funds and lacks broad name recognition in the Capital Region district covering Albany, Schenectady, and Saratoga Springs. Trader consensus pricing this outcome near 96 percent aligns with the district’s structural advantages and absence of recent developments that would alter the baseline outlook. Late developments such as a major scandal or an unusually strong national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though both remain low-probability scenarios at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$35,410Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Paul Tonko’s strong position as the Democratic incumbent in New York’s 20th Congressional District stems from the seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Tonko’s 61 percent margin in 2024. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, and Tonko maintains a substantial fundraising edge. Ralph Ambrosio, the Republican nominee and a former state trooper and prosecutor, has raised limited funds and lacks broad name recognition in the Capital Region district covering Albany, Schenectady, and Saratoga Springs. Trader consensus pricing this outcome near 96 percent aligns with the district’s structural advantages and absence of recent developments that would alter the baseline outlook. Late developments such as a major scandal or an unusually strong national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though both remain low-probability scenarios at this stage.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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