Joaquin Castro's commanding position in the TX-20 House race stems from the district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+16 Partisan Voter Index, combined with his long incumbency since 2013 and decisive primary win in March 2026. Castro secured 88% of the Democratic primary vote against two challengers, while Republican Edgardo Rafael Baez advanced unopposed with minimal fundraising. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus aligns with this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the San Antonio-based district. A late-breaking scandal, health event for the incumbent, or unprecedented national partisan shift could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in recent months.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоTX-20 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
TX-20 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$27,217 Объем
$27,217 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Хоакин Кастро (Д)
95%
Эдгардо Рафаэль Баэс (Р)
6%
$27,217 Объем
$27,217 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Хоакин Кастро (Д)
$12,524 Объем
95%
Эдгардо Рафаэль Баэс (Р)
$14,693 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Joaquin Castro's commanding position in the TX-20 House race stems from the district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+16 Partisan Voter Index, combined with his long incumbency since 2013 and decisive primary win in March 2026. Castro secured 88% of the Democratic primary vote against two challengers, while Republican Edgardo Rafael Baez advanced unopposed with minimal fundraising. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus aligns with this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the San Antonio-based district. A late-breaking scandal, health event for the incumbent, or unprecedented national partisan shift could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$27,217Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Joaquin Castro's commanding position in the TX-20 House race stems from the district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+16 Partisan Voter Index, combined with his long incumbency since 2013 and decisive primary win in March 2026. Castro secured 88% of the Democratic primary vote against two challengers, while Republican Edgardo Rafael Baez advanced unopposed with minimal fundraising. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus aligns with this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the San Antonio-based district. A late-breaking scandal, health event for the incumbent, or unprecedented national partisan shift could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$27,217Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Joaquin Castro's commanding position in the TX-20 House race stems from the district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+16 Partisan Voter Index, combined with his long incumbency since 2013 and decisive primary win in March 2026. Castro secured 88% of the Democratic primary vote against two challengers, while Republican Edgardo Rafael Baez advanced unopposed with minimal fundraising. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus aligns with this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the San Antonio-based district. A late-breaking scandal, health event for the incumbent, or unprecedented national partisan shift could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in recent months.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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