**Tina Kotek holds an 87% implied probability on Polymarket for the November 3, 2026, Oregon gubernatorial election, reflecting trader consensus on structural advantages for the Democratic incumbent in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 1982.** Recent polling shows a tighter contest, with a September DHM Research survey of likely voters giving Republican Christine Drazan a narrow 45-43% edge and other aggregates near a tie, driven by Kotek’s low approval ratings (around 37%) and voter concerns over affordability, housing, education, and homelessness. Drazan, the 2022 nominee in a rematch, benefits from these headwinds and a potential Pacific Green Party spoiler, yet forecasts from Cook Political Report (Lean D) and similar outlets still rate the race as favoring the incumbent. Upcoming October debates and positioning on data center policy have not shifted the outlook markedly, with traders weighting historical voting patterns and Democratic registration edges more heavily than short-term survey volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов губернатора Орегона
Победитель выборов губернатора Орегона
$54,957 Объем
$54,957 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Тина Котек (Д)
87%
Кристин Дразан (Р)
14%
$54,957 Объем
$54,957 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Тина Котек (Д)
$28,276 Объем
87%
Кристин Дразан (Р)
$26,681 Объем
14%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**Tina Kotek holds an 87% implied probability on Polymarket for the November 3, 2026, Oregon gubernatorial election, reflecting trader consensus on structural advantages for the Democratic incumbent in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 1982.** Recent polling shows a tighter contest, with a September DHM Research survey of likely voters giving Republican Christine Drazan a narrow 45-43% edge and other aggregates near a tie, driven by Kotek’s low approval ratings (around 37%) and voter concerns over affordability, housing, education, and homelessness. Drazan, the 2022 nominee in a rematch, benefits from these headwinds and a potential Pacific Green Party spoiler, yet forecasts from Cook Political Report (Lean D) and similar outlets still rate the race as favoring the incumbent. Upcoming October debates and positioning on data center policy have not shifted the outlook markedly, with traders weighting historical voting patterns and Democratic registration edges more heavily than short-term survey volatility.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Объем
$54,957Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**Tina Kotek holds an 87% implied probability on Polymarket for the November 3, 2026, Oregon gubernatorial election, reflecting trader consensus on structural advantages for the Democratic incumbent in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 1982.** Recent polling shows a tighter contest, with a September DHM Research survey of likely voters giving Republican Christine Drazan a narrow 45-43% edge and other aggregates near a tie, driven by Kotek’s low approval ratings (around 37%) and voter concerns over affordability, housing, education, and homelessness. Drazan, the 2022 nominee in a rematch, benefits from these headwinds and a potential Pacific Green Party spoiler, yet forecasts from Cook Political Report (Lean D) and similar outlets still rate the race as favoring the incumbent. Upcoming October debates and positioning on data center policy have not shifted the outlook markedly, with traders weighting historical voting patterns and Democratic registration edges more heavily than short-term survey volatility.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$54,957Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...**Tina Kotek holds an 87% implied probability on Polymarket for the November 3, 2026, Oregon gubernatorial election, reflecting trader consensus on structural advantages for the Democratic incumbent in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 1982.** Recent polling shows a tighter contest, with a September DHM Research survey of likely voters giving Republican Christine Drazan a narrow 45-43% edge and other aggregates near a tie, driven by Kotek’s low approval ratings (around 37%) and voter concerns over affordability, housing, education, and homelessness. Drazan, the 2022 nominee in a rematch, benefits from these headwinds and a potential Pacific Green Party spoiler, yet forecasts from Cook Political Report (Lean D) and similar outlets still rate the race as favoring the incumbent. Upcoming October debates and positioning on data center policy have not shifted the outlook markedly, with traders weighting historical voting patterns and Democratic registration edges more heavily than short-term survey volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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