Taiwan's defense ministry reported on August 31 that Beijing continues to expand air and sea patrols, joint combat readiness operations, and blockade rehearsals around the island while incorporating lessons from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, yet it lacks demonstrated amphibious assault capacity. Ongoing Chinese gray-zone activities, including coast guard deployments east of Taiwan and research vessel surveys, have intensified pressure without crossing into large-scale kinetic action. Xi Jinping's extensive purges of senior PLA officers have disrupted command structures critical for a complex invasion, delaying readiness timelines previously tied to 2027. Taiwan has responded with increased defense budgets exceeding NT$1 trillion, Penghu fortification, Han Kuang exercises, and drone procurement, while U.S. policy ambiguity and arms reviews continue. These factors sustain trader consensus that a full invasion by the market's December 2027 cutoff remains improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
12% вероятность
$3,039,763 Объем
$3,039,763 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
Да
12% вероятность
$3,039,763 Объем
$3,039,763 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's defense ministry reported on August 31 that Beijing continues to expand air and sea patrols, joint combat readiness operations, and blockade rehearsals around the island while incorporating lessons from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, yet it lacks demonstrated amphibious assault capacity. Ongoing Chinese gray-zone activities, including coast guard deployments east of Taiwan and research vessel surveys, have intensified pressure without crossing into large-scale kinetic action. Xi Jinping's extensive purges of senior PLA officers have disrupted command structures critical for a complex invasion, delaying readiness timelines previously tied to 2027. Taiwan has responded with increased defense budgets exceeding NT$1 trillion, Penghu fortification, Han Kuang exercises, and drone procurement, while U.S. policy ambiguity and arms reviews continue. These factors sustain trader consensus that a full invasion by the market's December 2027 cutoff remains improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$3,039,763Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's defense ministry reported on August 31 that Beijing continues to expand air and sea patrols, joint combat readiness operations, and blockade rehearsals around the island while incorporating lessons from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, yet it lacks demonstrated amphibious assault capacity. Ongoing Chinese gray-zone activities, including coast guard deployments east of Taiwan and research vessel surveys, have intensified pressure without crossing into large-scale kinetic action. Xi Jinping's extensive purges of senior PLA officers have disrupted command structures critical for a complex invasion, delaying readiness timelines previously tied to 2027. Taiwan has responded with increased defense budgets exceeding NT$1 trillion, Penghu fortification, Han Kuang exercises, and drone procurement, while U.S. policy ambiguity and arms reviews continue. These factors sustain trader consensus that a full invasion by the market's December 2027 cutoff remains improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$3,039,763Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Taiwan's defense ministry reported on August 31 that Beijing continues to expand air and sea patrols, joint combat readiness operations, and blockade rehearsals around the island while incorporating lessons from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, yet it lacks demonstrated amphibious assault capacity. Ongoing Chinese gray-zone activities, including coast guard deployments east of Taiwan and research vessel surveys, have intensified pressure without crossing into large-scale kinetic action. Xi Jinping's extensive purges of senior PLA officers have disrupted command structures critical for a complex invasion, delaying readiness timelines previously tied to 2027. Taiwan has responded with increased defense budgets exceeding NT$1 trillion, Penghu fortification, Han Kuang exercises, and drone procurement, while U.S. policy ambiguity and arms reviews continue. These factors sustain trader consensus that a full invasion by the market's December 2027 cutoff remains improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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