Taiwan's defense ministry assessments and observed PLA activities indicate insufficient current capacity for a full-scale amphibious invasion by the end of 2026, with exercises emphasizing joint blockades, maritime control, and coercion rather than immediate landings. Reduced aerial sorties around the island in 2026 compared to prior years, alongside sustained but non-escalatory coast guard operations, reflect a pattern of pressure short of conflict. Taiwan's record defense budget, drone integration drills, and resilience exercises further bolster deterrence in the narrow remaining window. Trader consensus at 96.2% for no invasion aligns with these structural barriers, though late shifts in leadership calculations, unexpected crises, or accelerated mobilization could still alter trajectories before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Вторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Да
4% вероятность
$42,286,302 Объем
$42,286,302 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
Да
4% вероятность
$42,286,302 Объем
$42,286,302 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's defense ministry assessments and observed PLA activities indicate insufficient current capacity for a full-scale amphibious invasion by the end of 2026, with exercises emphasizing joint blockades, maritime control, and coercion rather than immediate landings. Reduced aerial sorties around the island in 2026 compared to prior years, alongside sustained but non-escalatory coast guard operations, reflect a pattern of pressure short of conflict. Taiwan's record defense budget, drone integration drills, and resilience exercises further bolster deterrence in the narrow remaining window. Trader consensus at 96.2% for no invasion aligns with these structural barriers, though late shifts in leadership calculations, unexpected crises, or accelerated mobilization could still alter trajectories before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Объем
$42,286,302Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's defense ministry assessments and observed PLA activities indicate insufficient current capacity for a full-scale amphibious invasion by the end of 2026, with exercises emphasizing joint blockades, maritime control, and coercion rather than immediate landings. Reduced aerial sorties around the island in 2026 compared to prior years, alongside sustained but non-escalatory coast guard operations, reflect a pattern of pressure short of conflict. Taiwan's record defense budget, drone integration drills, and resilience exercises further bolster deterrence in the narrow remaining window. Trader consensus at 96.2% for no invasion aligns with these structural barriers, though late shifts in leadership calculations, unexpected crises, or accelerated mobilization could still alter trajectories before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$42,286,302Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...Taiwan's defense ministry assessments and observed PLA activities indicate insufficient current capacity for a full-scale amphibious invasion by the end of 2026, with exercises emphasizing joint blockades, maritime control, and coercion rather than immediate landings. Reduced aerial sorties around the island in 2026 compared to prior years, alongside sustained but non-escalatory coast guard operations, reflect a pattern of pressure short of conflict. Taiwan's record defense budget, drone integration drills, and resilience exercises further bolster deterrence in the narrow remaining window. Trader consensus at 96.2% for no invasion aligns with these structural barriers, though late shifts in leadership calculations, unexpected crises, or accelerated mobilization could still alter trajectories before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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